NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE I know, I know, I know. Don’t shout at me. I don’t want it to be true, either. But, on balance, I think it is fair to say that Joe Biden is more likely to win the election next year than is a Republican challenger. Biden is unpopular, yes. But he’s not that unpopular. And, besides, it’s difficult to defeat incumbent presidents at the best of times. Are these the best of times? I think not. The Republican brand is still badly damaged by Donald Trump and the riots of January 6. Republican primary voters seem determined to continue to pick unpalatable candidates who drag their tickets down. The overturning of Roe v. Wade, while necessary, has presented conservatives with a new set of political challenges. And the chaos of Covid has disappeared. At this rate, inflation and gas prices will both be down by next year, and interest rates will soon follow. Providing that President Biden can avoid falling off a stage or collapsing during an interview, he’ll be in a good position to be reelected.

I can, of course, construct a scenario in which Biden loses in 2024. He already seems ancient and out of it, and, this time around, he will not be able to spend the entire election season hiding in his basement. It seems possible that there will be a recession next year, which, for a hostage-to-fortune candidate, could be uniquely damaging. And, on a whole host of important social issues, the Democrats really are crazy. But if Republicans think that even these serious liabilities will make next year’s campaign an easy one, they are deeply, deeply delusional. Since 1992, the GOP has won the popular vote just once. And, since 2016, they’ve put off millions of the suburban voters on which they have relied since 1968. Even absent that burden, it would have been responsible for Republicans to consider themselves the underdogs. With it, they should assume that they’re going to start the game ten points down.

I have been unsparingly critical of Donald Trump since he tried to stage a coup in early 2021, but I will admit that even I had underestimated how much damage he had done to the party in the medium term. In 2022, anyone who was even remotely tied to Trump and his disgraceful behavior was punished by voters for this transgression. I must ask: Does the current GOP look to you as if it has learned its lesson? Almost everywhere, Trump is leading in the primaries, while his preferred candidates from last year’s midterms are gearing up for a rerun. Certainly, there are some bright spots in the party: Brian Kemp, Ron DeSantis, Greg Abbott, Mike DeWine, and others all cruised to reelection last time around, and, despite the disappointment overall, Republicans took control of the House. But presidential elections are not won in red states or in the House; they’re won in the middle. And, with a handful of exceptions, Republicans are still happily talking amongst themselves.

They ought to stop and go outside. One of the key virtues of conservatism is the ability to see the world as it is, rather than as one would like it to be. I would like nothing more than for Joe Biden to be reviled for the dangerous fraud that he is. I’d like to see his approval rating slip into the 20s, to see voters punish him for his brazen irresponsibility, to see his half-century of stupidity, demagoguery, and lies end in ignominy. But, at the moment, that doesn’t look especially likely. At the moment, Biden is getting away with it — just as he always has. In 2024, Biden will have the power of incumbency, the unwavering support of the media, another enormous cash advantage, and a voting public that is in the habit at present of giving Democrats the benefit of the doubt. If they are to have any hope of breaking through, Republicans will have to recognize the enormous challenge they will soon face, and get their act together across the board. Contempt, like hope, is a lousy political strategy.