Clues point to tacit support from Jordan and Saudi Arabia, despite their public protests.
W e are still learning details about Israel’s daring, unprecedented attack on Hamas leaders in Doha, the capital of Qatar. The fact that the attack happened at all without being reported or opposed by neighboring states, though, speaks volumes about the true reach of Israel’s alliances, tacit or explicit, in the Middle East.
A simple glance at a map underscores how difficult the Israeli attack was to pull off. Doha lies on the Persian Gulf, more than 1,000 miles by air from Jerusalem. That’s farther from Israel than Tehran is, and Israel’s ability to repeatedly strike the Iranian capital from the air this summer surprised many observers.
Israeli reports state that the strike was carried out by Israeli Air Force fighter planes that required many refuelings en route. That means the jets and large tankers were in the air for hours before they reached their target. Some country’s radars and air defenses likely spotted those planes well before they reached Doha.
That country was not likely Syria. OSINTdefender reports that Israeli jets attacked Syrian air defense and radar sites on Monday. That attack would have eliminated one way Hamas could have been alerted of an attack, but it would not have eliminated that risk entirely, as any jets must cross at least two Arab nations’ airspace before reaching Qatar.
Those two nations were almost certainly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The shortest distance between Israeli air bases and Qatar goes over those nations’ deserts, although a slightly longer trip could avoid Jordanian airspace. Taking another route to avoid those nations adds hundreds of miles to the trip and would take Israeli planes, at a minimum, over Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian airspace. It would also have exposed the Israeli planes to possible identification by Kuwaiti air defense, as the likely route would either cross into Kuwaiti airspace or come quite close to it.
There’s a further clue pointing to tacit Jordanian and Saudi cooperation: the direction the planes were traveling when American radar identified them. According to the Times of Israel, radar at America’s large base in Qatar identified Israeli planes “heading toward the east,” leading Americans to demand “an explanation.” Planes approaching Qatar from Saudi airspace would be heading east; those approaching from Iranian or Kuwaiti airspace would likely be heading south or west as they came near.
Tacit support for, or at least tolerance of, the attack may even extend to Qatar. Reports state that the United States told Qatar of the impending attack as soon as Israel made U.S. officials aware, and that Qatar “cooperated with Israel and the U.S.” by not informing Hamas that its leaders were about to be assassinated. (Qatar denies that it was given advance warning.)
We’ll almost surely never know that this is what happened. Indeed, both Jordan and Saudi Arabia have condemned the attack harshly. But Occam’s razor suggests that those protests are like the famous scene from Casablanca, where Captain Renault closes Rick’s Café down because gambling is going on while openly pocketing his winnings.
This wouldn’t be the first time Saudi Arabia has likely allowed Israel to use its airspace to mount an assault. Israeli planes have repeatedly struck Houthi positions in Yemen. Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, lies over 1,200 miles from Jerusalem; the direct route goes primarily through Saudi airspace.
Recall that the Saudis have led a multiyear war against the Houthis. Realpolitik dictates that the enemy of an enemy, even a Jewish one, is a friend.
The Saudis also have a lingering dispute with Qatar. In coordination with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, Saudi Arabia closed its land, sea, and air routes with Qatar for four years. The blockade was ended in 2021, but perhaps Qatar’s continued protection of Hamas finally wore Saudi Arabia’s patience down, given Israel and America’s obvious desire to force Hamas’s surrender in Gaza.
The upshot of this is as important as it is simple: the U.S.-Israeli alliance now holds unparalleled sway throughout the region. The Iranian-backed Syrian regime is gone, and its Houthi and Hezbollah proxies have been severely damaged. Iraq is powerless to protect its airspace against Israeli incursion, and Jordan has long been at peace with Israel and allied with the U.S. Now Israel can even reach Gulf states militarily in pursuit of its enemies.
It’s an overstatement to say that Israel, in conjunction with Washington, can impose its will as it sees fit. But so long as the U.S.-Saudi alliance remains firm, a tripartite understanding appears to govern — one that agrees that Iran and its proxies can never again be allowed to threaten their mutual security.
Perhaps this quiet alignment will become open with Saudi Arabia’s possible, future accession to the Abraham Accords. But for now, what matters are the facts on the ground. When their interests are aligned, Saudi Arabia will not let its historical enmity toward the Jewish state interfere with its foreign policy. Let those with ears hear.