{A} s the sun rose this morning in Iowa, Republican voters were free. This is a rare and precious thing. Most of the time, in our current presidency-centered two-party system, voters find themselves in one of three positions of dependence:
But today is the voters’ day. They can go any way they choose. They can ignore the polls, ignore the endorsements, ignore the media narratives, ignore the cash on hand. Iowans enjoy that privilege above all others, who must vote in the shadow of the contests before them. Whatever they do will shape the rest of the race. This is their day to declare independence, and it won’t come again for another four or eight years.
The field of candidates has narrowed. Only three remain who are seriously contending for the nomination (Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley), plus one (Vivek Ramaswamy) who has met the criteria for multiple debates and another (Asa Hutchinson) who has held major statewide and federal office. The voters can do whatever they want. Nobody is forcing them to support Trump. Indeed, their governor, state legislative leaders, and important civic leaders have endorsed DeSantis. If they prefer Haley to DeSantis, they can go with her and cite her support in New Hampshire — that, too, would be a free choice.
They should make one. The circus surrounding Trump has been draining and bad for the national psyche and the health of our civic faith in our wonderful and unique system of government. A new leader for the party could put all of that in the national rearview mirror. He or she could fire Jack Smith and wind down the most abusive efforts by the legal system to pursue Trump, but by then those efforts would have become a sideshow. Unlike Trump, a new leader could shift attention away from the leader’s personality and toward the leader’s agenda.
A new leader would also greatly improve the party’s electoral prospects. Joe Biden is massively unpopular and weak, and, at 81 years old, he’s out of ways to improve his situation. Per the most recent national poll, Biden’s approval rating is a catastrophic 33 percent, dragging down his average at RealClearPolitics to 39.3 percent approval versus 56.7 percent disapproval. Americans have had it with Biden.
Drilling further into that poll, things just get worse for Biden. Seventy-one percent say that the economy is bad, while only 24 percent say it is good; only 13 percent say that they are better off under Biden, while 43 percent say they are worse off. Only 41 percent say that Biden is honest and trustworthy, and only 28 percent — less than a third — say that Biden has the mental sharpness or physical health to serve effectively as president. These are, if you’ve read enough polling, far from unusual numbers for Biden. If you just talk to people, you’ll hear opinions consistent with the polls.
Given these circumstances, Republicans should want the race to be as close as possible to a referendum on the unpopular incumbent. Campaigning against Biden with a fresh face on the national stage would make the race about Biden, and that’s an unwinnable proposition for Democrats. That’s why they’d prefer to run against Trump, who would not only unify a fraying Democratic base but become the central character in the election — and give Jack Smith, Fani Willis, and Alvin Bragg the initiative in setting the terms of the election.
Look at that ABC News / Ipsos poll as an example: Fifty-three percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s record in office, as compared with 41 percent who approve. These aren’t numbers as terrible as Biden’s, but they reflect the fact that campaigning for Trump is an uphill battle into the teeth of a majority of the public that’s already against him. And not everybody who liked Trump’s first term likes Trump or wants more of him. Thirty-five percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, compared with 56 percent who are unfavorable — almost identical to Biden’s numbers. And those opinions, based on Trump’s yearslong presence on the national stage, are intractable; Trump, who will be 78 in June, has no realistic prospect of changing them.
Trump’s “honest and trustworthy” number, 26 percent, is lower even than Biden’s, and only 47 percent think he is mentally sharp enough for the job. In head-to-head national polls, Trump currently leads Biden by a point in the polling average — but he is still at 45.8 percent, leaving a chunk of the electorate still undecided and a clear majority not ready to commit to him after having watched him for eight years.
Like Michael Brendan Dougherty, I continue to think DeSantis is the better choice. Iowans who agree should caucus for him and not worry about voting strategically — and those who sincerely prefer Haley should do the same for their candidate. At this point, any vote against Trump is a vote for independence. It is also a vote to give the party a real choice as the primaries move on to other states. Especially if you don’t think that the past decade has been one of great success for Republicans, this may be your last shot to change things. Seize the day, for it may not come your way again.