Ahead of the third anniversary of the Capitol riot, President Joe Biden traveled to Pennsylvania to unveil his 2024 reelection campaign’s opening pitch: A choice, in his words, between “preserving and strengthening” American democracy under his leadership and the “revenge and retribution” of a second Trump term.

“The choice is clear: Donald Trump’s campaign is about him. Not America, not you,” Biden told supporters during his first campaign speech of the year near Valley Forge.

Pennsylvanians don’t seem to be buying his pitch. Five months from Election Day, the 81-year-old incumbent’s message appears to be falling flat with voters — endangering not only his reelection prospects but also down-ballot Democrats in the Keystone State who are running for reelection alongside him.

A New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll released this week found Biden trailing Trump among registered voters in five of the six most competitive presidential battleground states, including Pennsylvania, where he’s lagging Trump among registered voters by about three points. That survey is not an outlier: Trump is narrowly leading the RealClearPolitics presidential polling average in the Keystone State, a harrowing sign for Biden in the crucial battleground he narrowly carried in 2020.

Biden’s unpopularity could also present serious electoral risks for Democratic senator Bob Casey. The three-term incumbent is viewed more favorably than Biden among voters and is currently outrunning him in polls, but he faces a strong challenge from wealthy former Bridgewater CEO and Iraq veteran Dave McCormick. Casey leads his Republican rival by roughly five points, according to the RCP polling average — a narrow lead that suggests McCormick has room to grow in the next five months. 

This year, Casey is facing a much tougher political environment than he has in prior election cycles. “The years that he’s run have never been really great Republican years,” said Jim Lee, president and CEO of Susquehanna Polling and Research. “This year seems like it has the potential to be different because all the economic metrics suggest voters want change right now.”

Casey was first elected to the Senate in 2006, buoyed by distrust in the Bush administration over the Iraq War. He defeated Rick Santorum by 17.4 points, the highest margin of victory ever for a Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania.

In 2012, Casey outperformed President Barack Obama in Pennsylvania: Obama beat Mitt Romney in the state by 5.2 points, while Casey won reelection against Republican Tom Smith by 9.1 points.

In 2018, Casey was once again boosted by a blue wave brought on by Trump’s election two years earlier. He bested Lou Barletta by 13.1 points.

This time around, Casey is running during a presidential cycle alongside an incumbent whose approval rating has sagged in the low 40s since late 2021, following his administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. 

Casey will be bolstered by millions of television ads paid for by outside Democratic spending groups, including $42 million from the Chuck Schumer–aligned Senate Majority PAC and $8 million from Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.

But as the race progresses and more voters start tuning in, it may become increasingly difficult for Casey to differentiate himself from Biden, said Pennsylvania-based GOP strategist Vincent Galko. Casey voted with Biden 99.3 percent of the time in 2023.

“It’s very difficult for an incumbent of a party in the majority to distance himself from the president of the same party,” Galko told National Review. “They’re more tied at the hip than McCormick and Trump are, primarily because Casey is an incumbent.”

Casey will also have to weather attacks from his flush-with-cash Republican rival, who narrowly lost the Senate GOP nomination to celebrity television doctor Mehmet Oz in 2022. This early in the general election, McCormick is not yet well known in the state as he spends his time trying to tie his opponent to Biden.

“He’s voted for every single spending bill that has driven up inflation,” McCormick, who ran unopposed in this year’s Senate GOP primary, told his supporters at his primary-election party in Pittsburgh last month.

McCormick will also enjoy $18.6 million in Pennsylvania-focused ad spending from One Nation, the Senate GOP–aligned nonprofit advocacy group, beginning in mid June, as well as on-the-ground help from the Koch-backed group Americans for Prosperity Action. 

AFP Action’s Pennsylvania director, Ashley Klingensmith, told National Review that the group has 115 volunteers working around the clock to elect McCormick in Pennsylvania and has already made 400,000 voter contacts since launching its ground game on April 1. The group will continue advertising on McCormick’s behalf and aims to knock on 1 million doors by mid October, when the group will launch its get-out-the-vote efforts.

“Right now, we are solely focused on persuasion,” Klingensmith said in an interview.

The group endorsed Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary and is not extending its ground game services to Trump. The presumptive GOP nominee’s campaign team has yet to unveil its ground-game plans in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where Biden already has more than a dozen campaign offices up and running. 

“I get reporters calling me and asking: ‘Biden’s going to open 14 offices in Pennsylvania. Trump’s not on the ground yet, and what does that mean?’” said Allegheny County GOP chairman Sam DeMarco, a close McCormick ally.

DeMarco projected confidence that Trump’s team will announce its ground game soon and insisted that both presidential candidates are already known quantities. “Opening up those field offices is not going to change the way people feel when they go to the grocery store, or the gas station, or anything else,” he said.

Around NR

• The state GOP in Nebraska has embarrassed itself with its efforts to reorient toward Trumpism, writes Noah Rothman, after the organization attempted — unsuccessfully — to oust its own incumbents:

The Nebraska GOP sought to rid itself of Senator Pete Ricketts, the Republican tapped to fill former Senator Ben Sasse’s seat last year, by backing his primary opponent. On Tuesday, Ricketts handily defeated his opponent with nearly 80 percent of the vote. The party backed another challenger to incumbent congressman Adrian Smith, but that, too, was a debacle. As of this writing, Smith’s challenger secured the support of only 19 percent of the Republican voters in Nebraska’s third congressional district.

• Biden and Trump are officially set to debate on CNN next month, after Biden challenged his 2024 rival to join him on stage and to “make my day, pal.” James Lynch reports: 

Biden’s advanced age, 81, is already a major issue this campaign cycle and two nationally televised debates could allow him to potentially alleviate concerns over his mental faculties.

• Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will face off against Republican Larry Hogan to fill the seat currently held by retiring Democratic senator Ben Cardin. While Trone had a financial advantage, Alsobrooks racked up a number of key endorsements in the race, writes Zach Kessel:

Despite Trone’s sizeable campaign war chest — the co-founder of Total Wine & More broke the self-funding record for a Senate primary, spending upwards of $61 million of his own money — Alsobrooks won big-name endorsements from both inside and outside Maryland over the course of the campaign. She was endorsed by seven U.S. senators. . . . She also received endorsements from Maryland Democratic representatives Steny Hoyer and Jamie Raskin, and the state’s Democratic governor, Wes Moore.

• The Biden campaign’s theory of the race is “unconvincing,” argues Noah Rothman, after Biden pollster Jefrey Pollock laid out the campaign’s strategy during a recent chat with the New Republic’s Greg Sargent:

If Democrats find some reassurance in the campaign’s diagnosis of its problems, they are unlikely to be relieved by Pollock’s prescription. “The Biden campaign has to do what they are doing,” Pollock insisted — specifically, keep promoting its underappreciated legislative accomplishments, keep promising taxpayer-funded giveaways to disaffected young people, and keep pounding the table about the unacceptability of Donald Trump as a potential president.

• Nevada donors are hoping to raise $15 million for Trump ahead of a Vegas fundraiser next month, Audrey Fahlberg reports:

That fundraising boon in battleground Nevada comes as Trump, 77, leads President Joe Biden, 81, in the state by twelve points among registered voters in the latest New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll — a higher-than-expected lead in a crucial battleground state that could help tip the presidential election in his favor this fall.

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