Its progressive politicians have to work against a state constitution that doesn’t allow them to raise taxes unchecked.
T he New York Times asked earlier this month which states are attracting new residents, using 2023 data from the Census Bureau. Of the top ten states by net migration, nine have Republican-controlled legislatures and voted for Trump in 2024. The only exception, at No. 8, is Colorado.
U-Haul tracks which states are gaining from net migration by counting how many of its trucks move one-way to a new state. Of the top ten gainers in 2023, seven have Republican-controlled legislatures and voted for Trump in 2024. Colorado, again, is an exception, at No. 9.
In the 2024 presidential election, blue states in general saw significant shifts toward Trump compared with the 2020 results, which is a large part of the reason Trump won the popular vote. Trump increased his vote share by five points in New York, five points in New Jersey, four points in California, and four points in Massachusetts. But he improved by only one point in Colorado, and some counties actually trended toward Harris, which was very uncommon nationwide.
There are a variety of reasons why this is the case. As an article for the Colorado Sun explained after the election last year, Colorado has a different demographic profile from that of some other blue states. It has more voters with high levels of education and more voters who aren’t religious, both of which tended to correlate with Harris support last year. It also has a relatively small racial-minority population, so the national trend of disaffected black and Hispanic voters becoming more open to Trump had less of an effect there.
One thing that probably has something to do with Colorado’s bucking these national trends, though, is the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR). It has to be comforting for residents to know that no matter how crazy Democrats get on any number of political issues, the state constitution prevents taxes from growing out of control.
Just as the top ten states in those net-migration lists are generally lower-tax red states, the bottom ten are generally higher-tax blue states. Democrats in California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey have chased residents out with seemingly ever-higher taxes and government spending. But, because of TABOR, Colorado residents don’t have to worry about that.
TABOR caps Colorado state revenue growth at the rate of inflation plus the rate of population growth. If revenue grows beyond that, the state must return the extra money to taxpayers, unless a majority of voters direct otherwise. Over the past four years, a period in which state tax collections were generally high, Colorado taxpayers have received a total of $9.4 billion in rebates under TABOR.
Colorado has a flat individual income tax of 4.25 percent in 2025, compared with California’s progressive income tax, which tops out at 13.3 percent, or New York’s, which tops out at 10.9 percent. Colorado’s corporate tax rate is about half as high as California’s and about one-third as high as New Jersey’s. Its property tax burden is about two-thirds the size of New York’s or New Jersey’s. Colorado’s sales tax burden is smack-dab in the middle, ranking 26th out of the 50 states.
Colorado stands out as a blue state that ranks highly on the American Legislative Exchange Council’s Rich States, Poor States report, which ranks states based on fiscally conservative criteria. New York, California, and Illinois are perennial basement dwellers, but Colorado ranks 17th and in the past has been as high as second.
Building a Better Colorado is a nonpartisan group with a website critical of TABOR. Most of its criticisms, when read by a supporter of limited government, are signs that TABOR is working.
For example, the website says, “Rather than simply limiting the growth of state government as most voters understood to be the intention of TABOR, TABOR has actually shrunk the state’s operating budget relative to the size of the economy.” Great!
It notes that the state’s four largest categories of expenditure — K–12 education, health, human services, and corrections — have grown to take up a larger portion of the state budget. It sees this as a bad thing because that means less money is left for the government to do other stuff. One could also see it as a good thing that the state government is forced to focus on its core functions rather than expanding into new areas.
It says that voters in many local jurisdictions in Colorado have agreed to allow revenue to increase faster than TABOR’s limit, but it bemoans that the state government has been unsuccessful in its efforts to do the same. Sounds like more taxing power has been pushed down to the local level, where it can more accurately reflect local priorities with more effective accountability to the voters directly affected.
TABOR is very frustrating to the progressives who control the Colorado state legislature. In 2023, they asked voters to weaken TABOR by referendum, which is the only way to weaken it since it is part of the Colorado constitution. The referendum failed by a margin of 41 to 59.
Through 2022, there have been 36 statewide referenda under TABOR that asked voters to allow the state to increase revenue. Voters rejected 25 of them. Many of the same voters who have supported progressive policies such as marijuana legalization or the right to abortion also vote against raising their own taxes most of the time.
TABOR is not perfect. There’s a case to be made, as Governor Jared Polis and Art Laffer argued in National Review in 2023, that TABOR should limit tax rates instead of tax collections. On the other hand, it could be even more fiscally conservative, as Vance Ginn has argued.
Regardless, it’s undeniable that TABOR has kept the tax burden in Colorado low relative to other blue states, which has probably played a role in its continuing to attract new residents. Colorado has incredible natural beauty, but so does California. Colorado has lots of major businesses that provide good jobs, but so do New York and New Jersey. The sharp point of divergence between Colorado and other blue states is its tax burden, and that exists only thanks to TABOR.