W ith the just-scheduled first presidential debate between President Biden and former president Trump only six weeks away, it appears the Democrats’ anti-Trump lawfare campaign is sputtering. Whether it revs up again in time for a pre-election federal trial will depend on how the Supreme Court resolves the immunity and obstruction cases that could have major ramifications for Biden Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith’s election-interference prosecution against Trump.
That doesn’t mean we’ll lack for trials, though. The president’s son, Hunter Biden, faces two criminal prosecutions, and those trials are now scheduled to take place imminently, back-to-back. The charges in these cases are so serious that the Biden Justice Department and its faux special counsel, David Weiss, could not make them disappear, despite their best efforts to bamboozle Judge Maryellen Noreika to rubber-stamp a sweetheart plea deal (the judge was having none of it).
The scheme to pull off the deal is telling: The evidence in these cases is sufficiently daunting that Hunter was planning to admit guilt to the tax charges (as long as it was arranged that he’d get no jail time) and to refrain from contesting the gun charges (as long as his father’s Justice Department granted him a deferment in contemplation of dismissal that, under DOJ guidelines, would not have been available to other defendants in a case in which there is evidence of brandishing a firearm).
This tells us something important: With the president polling so poorly he decided he had no choice but to debate Trump, the Biden administration will be desperate to avoid trials in Hunter’s cases. The gun case is an instance of attempted preferential treatment for the president’s son on offenses for which Joe Biden, in his years of anti–Second Amendment demagoguery, has made a point of demanding aggressive prosecution. And the tax case — notwithstanding Weiss’s effort to bleach the president’s name out of the charging document — focuses on several of Hunter’s years of peddling his father’s political influence for money, often from agents of corrupt and anti-American regimes. (I have to add the qualifier “several of” because Weiss willfully allowed the statute of limitations to lapse on the tax offenses that allegedly occurred when Joe Biden was vice president.)
As our James Lynch has reported, Judge Noreika declined to postpone the gun trial, which is scheduled to commence in Delaware on June 3. If there is not a plea deal, the gun trial could run smack into the tax trial, which is scheduled to begin on June 20 in California (where, as James has reported, Judge Mark Scarsi gave the back of the hand to the younger Biden’s various motions to dismiss the charges).
The fast-tracking of these cases has major political implications. Because of the seriousness of the gun charge (coupled with Hunter’s appalling conduct in mishandling the guns involved), a prison sentence would routinely be imposed on a convicted defendant. Similarly, the high-dollar figure at issue in the tax-evasion case would call for prison time. If Hunter were convicted in one or both cases by July, he would likely be sentenced in early October. Consequently, President Biden would face tough questions about whether he intended to pardon his son — especially given that he has now agreed to debate Trump.
Hunter’s defense team, led by Abbe Lowell, has tried to string things out for obvious reasons. They don’t want to go to trial in either case; they don’t have a compelling defense, and the presentation of evidence that would unfold in court would be very problematic for President Biden’s reelection bid, to put it mildly.
Obviously, the president does not want his son to be sentenced to prison — what father would? But to pardon Hunter prior to the election would be disastrous for Biden, especially as Democrats intensify their rhetorical attacks on Trump for delaying Smith’s prosecutions against him with the expectation of pardoning himself (or having his Justice Department fire Smith and dismiss the cases) if he wins the presidency.
The Biden administration had to be hoping that trials in Hunter’s two cases could be put off until after the election, at which point — regardless of what representations he made during the campaign — President Biden, as a lame-duck, could pardon his son without much concern about the political fallout. (If Democrats controlled the House, a reelected Biden would not be impeached; even if Republicans held the House and could pass impeachment articles, there would surely be enough Democrats in the Senate to prevent Biden from being removed — due to the Constitution’s requirement of a two-thirds’ supermajority for conviction.)
Between Trump’s trial and war in the Middle East, Hunter’s tribulations have glided under the radar for the past few months. That won’t be the case much longer. With the June 3 Delaware court date only two weeks away, look for signs that furious plea negotiations are underway to try to avoid both trials.
After the humiliation of the sweetheart deal’s implosion, Weiss (who reports the Attorney General Merrick Garland) is surely negotiating with Lowell in search of a different sweet spot: a plea bargain with just enough prison time to withstand intense scrutiny, but with some hidden escape hatches that contemplate Hunter delaying his surrender to the Bureau of Prisons until after Election Day. That way, the Biden administration can pretend that it prosecuted the president’s son without fear or favor, but it might still be possible for Hunter to avoid much, if any, incarceration.