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National Review
National Review
3 Mar 2024
Zach Kessel


NextImg:At Least 20 Percent of GOP Voters in First Three Primary States Will Not Vote for Trump in November: Poll

At least 20 percent of GOP voters in the first three primary states — Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — do not plan to vote for former president Donald Trump should he appear on the ballot in November as the Republican presidential nominee, according to a recent Associated Press VoteCast poll.

61 percent of Republican Iowa caucus-goers said they would be satisfied with Trump as the nominee and would vote for him in the general election, while 18 percent said they would be dissatisfied but would still support him in November. Twenty percent told pollsters they would not vote for Trump for president.

Among the three states, New Hampshire, where former United States ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley won nine delegates to Trump’s 21, alongside 43.2 percent of the vote to Trump’s 54.3 percent, has the highest percentage of Republican voters who say they would not pull the lever for the former president. Thirty-four percent of GOP primary voters in the Granite State said they would be sufficiently disappointed with a Trump nomination to refrain from voting Republican on the presidential line. Fifty-three percent said they would be happy with Trump as the nominee, and 12 percent responded that though they would prefer that the GOP does not to nominate Trump, they would still vote for him in November.

In South Carolina, where Trump won 59.8 percent of the vote and former governor Haley won 39.5 percent, just over six in ten Republican primary voters would be happy to support Trump in the general election, and 13 percent would be dissatisfied but vote for the former president anyway. A quarter of respondents told the AP that they would not choose him in November.

Despite the fact that these figures come from Republican primary voters, the AP reported, between 17 percent and 31 percent of voters in those three contests identify as Democrats, and between 14 percent and 27 percent identify as independents.

The AP VoteCast survey draws a contrast with similar polling done in the past. An ABC News / Ipsos poll released in January showed that 72 percent of Republicans would be satisfied with Trump as the nominee.