Two years ago this morning, Americans woke up to horrifying news from Israel. Hamas, under the cover of rocket fire, had sent an army of thousands of terrorists into Israel. They invaded Jewish communities across the border, slaughtered whole families in their homes, raped women, and lit bodies on fire. Traveling by paraglider, other bands of Hamas terrorists descended on revelers at the Nova music festival and shot at the crowd at will. When some of the concertgoers fled to bomb shelters, the terrorists threw grenades into them. It isn’t proper to refer to October 7 as a massacre. It was, in fact, a day of many massacres that when combined represented the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust — over 1,200 were killed, including children and even infants. As if that weren’t enough, the terrorists took 251 hostages back to Gaza, where 48 are believed to remain two years later (of whom about 20 are believed to be still alive).
In the week leading up to this second anniversary of that horrific day, President Trump has been publicizing a grand bargain to end the war in Gaza. While negotiations are still ongoing and it’s far from a done deal, there is at least a greater sense of optimism than during prior rounds of negotiations.
The 20-point plan for peace, unveiled by Trump last week during a visit by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is an ambitious vision that in its early stages would see the return of all remaining hostages within days and the end to the current conflict. As the plan goes through the steps, there would be an interim international body to oversee Gaza led by Trump and other dignitaries such as Tony Blair, the former prime minister of Britain, while day-to-day administration of Gaza would be the responsibility of a “technocratic” committee of Palestinians. Toward the very end of the process, as Gaza is redeveloped and proves no threat to its neighbors, there is a reference to a pathway to Palestinian statehood.
Netanyahu accepted the Trump proposal, which was worked out in coordination with Israel as well as Arab countries. Trump initially said that Hamas had until 6 p.m. to agree to it, or he’d fully support giving Israel a free hand to carry on with its campaign against Hamas in Gaza. Prior to the deadline, Hamas issued a carefully worded statement, on one hand seeming to signal support for the plan but also adding the caveat that “the movement affirms its readiness to immediately enter into negotiations through the mediators to discuss the details of this agreement.” While many supporters of Israel viewed this as a “no,” Trump took it as enough of a “yes” to respond, “Based on the Statement just issued by Hamas, I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE. Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly!”
The cynical view is that Hamas is in dire condition at the moment and is using the talks to get the IDF to pause fighting while it regroups. Nonetheless, negotiators from all sides are meeting in Egypt this week to hammer out a deal, with Trump wanting quick results but not setting a clear deadline.
There are certainly many devilish details that remain to be worked out in the coming days, months, and years for Trump’s full vision for a new Gaza to be realized. And there’s a lot of poison for Israel to swallow. For instance, to bring its hostages home, Israel will have to release 250 terrorists serving life sentences on top of 1,700 taken prisoner on October 7. Among them is one of Israel’s most notorious prisoners, Ibrahim Hamad, who organized high-profile suicide bombings during the Second Intifada. So dangerous is Hamad that Israel refused to release him as part of a 2011 prisoner exchange to reclaim kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit — an exchange that released Yahya Sinwar, who went on to mastermind October 7.
On the plus side, however, the deal does away with the Biden framework for deals in which hostages were released on a piecemeal basis over weeks or months. Instead, this one entails the promise of Israel regaining all hostages at once. While Hamas has not been totally destroyed, much has been achieved in Gaza and beyond over the past two years. Israel has eviscerated Hamas, severely curtailing its ability to carry out anything approaching the October 7 attacks. Meanwhile, Israel managed to neutralize Hezbollah and, with the help of the U.S., to cripple the Iranian nuclear program.
The Trump plan would still allow Israel to maintain a security perimeter within Gaza along the border even after it mostly withdraws, and would keep Hamas and other terrorist groups from being a part of the new government — though of course the very real possibility remains that they could reconstitute in some form.
In sum, the agreement would fall short of a total surrender by Hamas, but there is a lot in it for Israelis to like. And it is far from guaranteed that the alternative of a monthslong takeover of Gaza City and indefinite occupation of the whole strip would achieve either the total destruction of Hamas or the return of all hostages.
On this solemn day, we hope for a resolution that brings home all the remaining hostages and makes Israel safer and more secure than it was two years ago.