


The administration’s surprise pause of the supply of certain key weapons systems to Ukraine at a time when that embattled nation is under ferocious attack was a bad decision made worse by subsequent confusion over who was behind it and why. Its reversal is to be welcomed, even if some of the damage it has caused will not be so easily put right. Confidence in the reliability of the U.S. as an ally will have taken another knock, not just in Kyiv, but elsewhere, whether in Europe, East Asia, or in those countries pondering how to choose between the Beijing-led axis and the U.S.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has devolved into a war of attrition against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary. Any signs that Ukraine’s backers are losing their resolve will only encourage Moscow to stick to that course, a task made easier by the support of Russia’s allies, the absence of material internal dissent, and the low level of importance that the Kremlin attaches to its own soldiers’ deaths. If Moscow believes that it will eventually prevail by toughing this war out, that is what it will do.
That is why the strong language that Donald Trump has been using since announcing an end to the pause is of real value. The dealmaker in chief has made it clear that he believes that Putin has strung him along. The Kremlin understands Trump well enough to know that such an admission means that the president intends to put an end to that. The fact that Russia has not eased up its attacks means that Putin is waiting to see what deeds — beyond resuming the paused arms supplies — will follow the words. The U.S. should go ahead with the additional set of sanctions now under discussion on Capitol Hill. Sanctions are not going to bring Russia to its knees, despite signs of mounting stress in its economy, but they and the resumed arms shipments send a signal to Putin that the cost of attrition is going up. Additional increases in the quantity and quality of weapons sent to Ukraine would underpin that message and would have a better chance than anything else of persuading Putin to replace fake negotiations with the real thing.
One reason given for the pause was that the U.S. needs to take stock of its own weapons supplies and where they were going (with the implication that we might be running short). If that is true, it is something to be remedied, not leaked or disclosed. Naturally, we should always put the highest priority on the defense of the American homeland, but we should also remember that this is not just a matter of piling up armaments within our borders. The international situation is as complex as anything that this country has had to face for a long time, and it will not be resolved by taking comfort in crudely binary thinking, such as home/abroad or Russia/China.
The belief that the challenge from China can safely be divorced from the threat from Russia is deeply misguided. Beijing and Moscow are different heads of the same hydra. A Russian victory over Ukraine would feed Putin’s appetite for more aggression, would be a win for China, and would embolden America’s other foes.
We have, mercifully, not come to blows with either Russia or China. The best way to ensure that we continue to avoid doing so is by preserving credible deterrence. Expanding our defense industries and rebuilding our stocks of weaponry and strategic materials is a critical part of that. Not abandoning Ukraine is another. The president’s reversal of the “pause” is a step in the right direction, as are his angry words, but there is more to do.