In 2007, Steve Jobs launched the iPhone. In 2024, Tim Cook launched Vision Pro. He introduced it as being to "spatial computing" what the Mac is to "personal computing" and the iPhone is to "mobile computing." The CEO of the California-based firm explained that the mixed-reality headset is "a new kind of computer that augments reality by seamlessly blending the real world with the digital world. You're no longer limited by a display. Your surroundings become an infinite canvas." Gone are the days of needing a computer or mouse, or even a smartphone, to play games, watch movies, take photos, share content, shop or work.
Will Apple see another success with this bold gamble? The price of the headset is the first obstacle. Set at $3,500 (€3,250) without any options, it is three and a half times more costly than a top-of-the-range Apple smartphone. The price jumps to $3,900 for 1 terabyte of storage, instead of 256 or 512 gigabytes. And that's without factoring in the accessories, which can push the bill to nearly $5,000: headband, optical insert, extra battery, travel case... Apple is taking the risk of being prohibitively expensive.
The competition for mixed reality headsets promises to be fierce. On the starting line, there is Meta's Quest Pro (three-and-a-half times less expensive), French challenger Lynx (two-and-a-half times less expensive), and HTC's Vive XR Elite (three times less expensive). Sony will also soon join the race with its forthcoming mixed reality Visiocasque, which was presented in January at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the international high-tech mecca.
What's more, this new technology is going to take longer than smartphones to catch on with professionals and the general public alike. Beyond the curiosity effect that comes with any major innovation, what will happen to Vision Pro sales? Will it be a niche or mass-market product? Time will tell.
According to Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo (TF International Securities), Apple received between 160,000 and 180,000 pre-orders for its Vision Pro by mid-January. However, beyond the initial hype, sales might not exceed 350,000 units in 2024. Statista's optimistic projections are for 1.5 million units in 2025.
One thing is certain, the company took its time before releasing Vision Pro: nearly nine years after acquiring Volkswagen spin-off Metaio in May 2015, a German company specialized in augmented reality. If successful, the headset could help Apple to be less dependent on its iPhones. According to its latest annual results, ending September 30, 2023, smartphones still account for 52.3% of its overall annual sales, or $200.5 billion ($28.3 billion for iPads and $29.3 billion for Macs) out of a total of $383.2 billion.