The future of French Prime Minister François Bayrou and his government now rests in the hands of the Assemblée Nationale. Under pressure from opposition parties ahead of the 2026 budget debate, Bayrou decided to seek a confidence vote on Monday, September 8, the outcome of which will determine whether his minority government survives.
The procedure, set out in Article 49.1 of the French Constitution, puts a straightforward question to all members of the Assemblée: Do they have confidence in Bayrou's government to lead the nation's policy? While lawmakers may abstain or be absent from the chamber, only "for" and "against" votes will be counted, leading to two possible outcomes:
Try our simulator below, and scroll lower to see what positions the groups have taken.
Simulate the confidence vote in the Assemblée Nationale
Select which groups will vote for or against Bayrou's government on September 8, or abstain. Scroll below to see more about parties' political alignment and what position they have publicly taken.
The four left-wing groups and the far-right Rassemblement National, together counting 315 seats (55%) of the 574 currently filled, announced they would vote against the government:
The four groups in Bayrou's governing coalition, with a total of 207 seats, all plan to back the government:
A "clear majority" of the 23 MPs in LIOT, a group of miscellaneous independents and small parties, will vote against the government, the group said in a statement on Wednesday.
Finally, the 11 non-affiliated lawmakers are not members of any group. They are expected to split their votes among for, against and abstention.
Unless the negotiations Bayrou has called for yield a last-minute change ahead of September 8, the prime minister appears headed for a loss, meaning he would have to resign after just over eight months in power.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.