"France, beyond the tombs, seeks cradles; will you remain deaf to her prayer?" implored Paul Deschanel, future French president, in 1919 after the carnage of World War I. Over a century later, in January, Emmanuel Macron echoed this sentiment with a natalist appeal, calling for a "demographic rearmament" in a strikingly martial tone.

This time, the battle is not in the trenches, but in the bedroom. The French, who in the 2000s were on a par with Ireland in terms of birth rate, are having fewer and fewer babies. In 2010, 832,799 babies were born in France (excluding Mayotte), according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). By 2023, that number dropped to 678,000 births, the lowest level since World War II. The decline in the birth rate over the last 13 years has been steady and significant, with an acceleration since the pandemic. The fertility rate, which measures the average number of children per woman, fell from 2.03 in 2010 to 1.68, falling below the critical threshold of 2.1 needed to sustain population replacement.

Is "demographic rearmament" a political issue? France certainly has a long history of family policies based on social and fiscal measures. These were first significantly tightened in 1998, when family allowances were made means-tested, and again in 2015 when they were adjusted based on income. Additionally, tax benefits for households with children were reduced during this period.

Has this prompted the French to reduce the size of their families? It's not clear, according to Julien Damon, former director of research at the French National Funds Allocated to Families and author of an essay on the subject. "The consensus of demographic and economic studies is that the link between family policies and fertility is very tenuous," he observed. This is borne out by the general decline in fertility worldwide, regardless of the family policies pursued by governments.

In South Korea, for example, spending on the birth rate rose from 0.2% to 0.6% of gross domestic product between 2000 and 2020, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. All to no avail: Fertility, at 0.78 children per woman, remains one of the lowest in the world.

Family policies are not a determining factor in couples' decision to have a child. A survey conducted by Elabe for the Institut Montaigne, in the wake of Macron's declarations on "demographic rearmament," published on February 1, revealed that, for the French, the primary barrier to having children is economic: Purchasing power is the sticking point. Close behind is the fear of raising a child in a world threatened by war, climate change and other global challenges. Benefits and family policy rank low on the list.

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