Moscow is holding out. This is the almost unanimous analysis of Russian and foreign observers as 2023 draws to a close. In Russia, the assessment has even taken on a triumphant tone. "Ukraine now has a choice: capitulate or cease to exist," warned Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the State Duma. "How the West lost the economic war against Russia," headlined the Baltnews news site. "The world is looking at Russia like a Noah's Ark," added MP Elena Panina, while Federation Council Chairwoman Valentina Matvienko has proposed nothing less than the creation of a "ministry of happiness."
The contrast with the sometimes apocalyptic tone emanating from certain commentators during the first part of the year is striking. Of course, propaganda has never allowed defeatism to set in, but Russia was presented as being engaged in a fierce existential conflict, fighting for survival against "satanic" forces, according to Vladimir Putin.
It was indeed the Russian president who initiated the change. Since February 24, 2022, the first day of the invasion of Ukraine, he had said very little – and never about the situation on the front line, which was generally disastrous after the progress of the first few days. The turnaround began in July: Putin became inexhaustible, frequently referring, often in a light-hearted way, to the "failure" of the great Ukrainian summer counter-offensive.
The Russian leader was clearly relieved by this development. After its successes in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, Kyiv's army was advancing even more strongly. The facts now prove Putin right: The Russian army, entrenched behind the "Surovikin line" (minefields, trenches, anti-armor obstacles), has held out.
Closing ranks
Moscow is holding out. The assessment is the same in just about every area. Admittedly, it's still not very glorious, given the objectives stated by the government when it launched its large-scale war against Ukraine: to "denazify" and demilitarize the country, bring its leaders to trial, repel NATO, take Kyiv and Odesa and put an end to Western "hegemony" in the world. The only firm success is the one that had been ruled out from the outset by Putin – the annexation of new territories.
But Russia has absorbed all the shocks caused by the war, including those that had not been anticipated. Above all, Russian leaders now believe that time is on their side in the confrontation with Ukraine and the West. The country has prepared for battle, taking up its favorite position of the besieged citadel.
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