Why French politics can't cope without an absolute majority
Long ReadWhile most European countries have learned to manage their fragmented parliaments, France has failed to adapt. The 'fait majoritaire,' the political dominance of a president backed by a parliamentary majority, has so deeply shaped politics since 1962 that lawmakers have been unable to envision governments built on a base of negotiation and compromise.
A wild hope has, at different times, gripped everyone who has been desperately searching for a way out of France's current political crisis: What if the president dissolved the Assemblée Nationale? What if, as if by magic, a comfortable absolute majority miraculously emerged from this popular consultation? Some members of Parliament would oppose it, others would support it, but many would ultimately feel reassured at the idea of returning to the political stability of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and even the 2010s – with a solid majority, a united opposition and regular swings from left to right to maintain balance.
Even though politicians dream of such a miracle, deep down they know it probably will not happen. Ever since President Emmanuel Macron's election in 2017, the changes to France's political landscape have been so profound that no one can seriously imagine that, in the event of a dissolution of the Assemblée, the solid majorities of support once enjoyed by Presidents Charles de Gaulle, François Mitterrand and Nicolas Sarkozy would come back. According to historian Nicolas Roussellier, author of La Force de Gouverner. Le Pouvoir Exécutif en France, XIXe-XXIe siècles ("The Strength to Govern: Executive Power in France, 19th-21st Century"), the era of the fait majoritaire, a situation in which a president backed by a parliamentary majority enjoys political dominance, is over. Since 2022, and even more so since 2024, France has entered an era of "tripolarization."
The traditional right-left divide that had underpinned French politics throughout the early decades of the Fifth Republic has effectively been replaced by an unprecedented tripartition. The Assemblée's current division between a social and environmentalist left, a liberal and pro-European center and a sovereigntist and identitarian far right is not some unfortunate accident: It has become a permanent feature of French political life. The absolute majority has disappeared, depriving the Assemblée of the bearings that had guided French politics since 1962.
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