Should France's Socialists vote in favor of a motion of no confidence against centrist Prime Minister François Bayrou's government? This is the question they keep asking themselves. The Socialists did not publicly announce a decision, neither after a joint committee finalized the 2025 budget bill on Friday, January 31, nor after Bayrou said Saturday he would use Article 49.3 of the Constitution on the budget bill, to pass it without a vote.

For the Parti Socialiste (PS), this dilemma has begun to look like a trap – one which, no matter which option it chooses, will leave it damaged. Speaking on broadcaster France 5, on Saturday, former Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin (in office 1997-2002) called on his party and "all the forces of the left not to vote for" the motion to topple the government. It "wouldn't be responsible," said the party's historic figure, accentuating the pressure on socialist MPs.

"Whatever its choice, the PS will dissatisfy part of voters in fairly comparable proportions," said Jean-Yves Dormagen, a professor of political science at the University of Montpellier. The party's main difficulty lies in the composition of its electorate, which is split between a moderate left that wants to compromise, and a more radical left, supportive of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance with the rest of the left, including the radical-left party, La France Insoumise (LFI)

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