"We're [running] out of money – and [we are] nearly out of time." This statement, made on Monday, December 4, by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, comes as no surprise to Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian president is aware of the alarmingly low level of ammunition and equipment available to his army, of which the United States has been a constant supplier since the Russian invasion.
This message had an internal target. The White House has decided to put pressure on representatives in Congress, as negotiations on a new aid package to Ukraine ground to a halt at the weekend. "A vote against supporting Ukraine is a vote to improve [Vladimir] Putin's strategic position," said Sullivan. "That's just an inescapable reality," he added.
On October 20, the White House asked Congress to adopt an ambitious aid package worth around $106 billion (€98 billion) for Ukraine ($61 billion), Taiwan, Israel and to bolster border security with Mexico. This last point is intended as a political gesture to the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans feel that the Biden administration has not given enough attention to, or even denied, the immigration problem. By proposing $14 billion to reinforce border security, the White House hoped to facilitate passage of the text in its entirety. But one setback followed another.
The fall of Kevin McCarthy, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, provoked by extremist representatives in his own camp, caused an initial significant delay. Mike Johnson, his successor, had to manage an emergency: how to avoid a shutdown, i.e. a temporary halt in government activities due to financial constraints. This was managed thanks to a compromise with the Democrats, postponing the threat for two months. Contrary to what the White House had hoped for, Johnson decided to separate the issue of aid to Ukraine from that of aid to Israel.
But schedule changes have not changed the arithmetic. The Grand Old Party's (GOP) majority is very narrow. Its center of gravity has shifted to the far right and is looking to cut public spending and is tempted to disengage in the area of foreign policy.
In recent weeks, House Republicans have chosen to link aid to Ukraine and Israel to domestic policy issues: first, a drastic cut in funds for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), then a restrictive and repressive rewrite of asylum and immigration legislation. This is unacceptable for the Democrats, especially the progressive wing.
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