"Ukraine fatigue" is a refrain that has been gaining traction to the extent that it is becoming a nagging earworm, but war weariness in regard to Ukraine is clearly sweet music for the Kremlin. After 19 months of a deadly and costly conflict, there is still no end in sight, and Western support is wearing thin. People are starting to wonder what’s the use. Prematurely announced for the winter of 2022-2023, "Ukraine fatigue" has now become a reality. There are a number of factors that explain it. On both military and diplomatic fronts, the Ukrainians and their supporters are going through a rough patch.

First of all, the highly anticipated counter-offensive launched in June was sluggish. It was nothing like the counter-offensive of autumn 2022, which took ill-prepared Russian troops by surprise. Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted and short of weapons, especially ammunition and artillery, which the West, having emptied their reserves, is struggling to supply. The coming winter promises to be a difficult one. Politically, the Zelensky magic is beginning to wear off. The Ukrainian president's words are less effective and have even started to irritate some of his partners, who are also tired of being criticized for not doing enough.

Furthermore, with diplomatic upheavals in September, western arguments have made little headway with the southern countries. And in Washington, the haggling between Republicans and Democrats in Congress has landed on Ukraine's back.

In Europe, the key Polish partnership is slipping away amid the election campaign, where every kind of chicanery is on the table. In Slovakia, a pro-Russian populist took the lead in its elections with almost 23% of the vote. On Monday, October 2, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell pulled off a master stroke by organizing a historic summit of the 27 EU foreign ministers in Kyiv.

It was a strong symbolic tactic, but the niggling refrain was ever-present: The Hungarian foreign minister was not present (no surprises there), nor was the Polish foreign minister who pleaded ill health, but was well enough to attend his party’s conference in Katowice. Nevertheless, the two absentees, making a statement but not a rash one, were represented in Kyiv by deputies. The risks of an empty chair policy are taken into consideration in the Brussels environment.

Such is life in Europe, ever-ready to self-flagellate. But the little refrain ignores another bigger musical score, far more difficult to play and above all less driven than Moscow's disinformation campaigns – the prospect of enlarging the EU to include Ukraine. Although incredibly complex to achieve, it is an inescapable dynamic, whatever the political evolution in the United States. For while some in Washington can envisage sacrificing Ukraine, Europeans don't have that luxury. From now on, Ukraine's home is here. Abandoning it to Russia would be to expose the rest of Europe to the same threat. This war is now as existential for the European Union as it is for Kyiv.

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