Dare we dream that by 2050 work will be... a passion? A profession in which we invest ourselves alongside a fulfilling private life? An activity allowing us to move from one mission to another, ever more instructive, sometimes as an employee, sometimes self-employed? A job "augmented" by artificial intelligence?

There's no shortage of forward-looking studies on work. From France's National Agency for the Improvement of Working Conditions (ANACT) to the National Institute of Research and Security (INRS) and the Association for Executive Employment (APEC), researchers and statisticians are striving to anticipate tomorrow's world.

Intensification of drudgery, destabilization of employment, destruction of jobs, weakening of the meaning of work... The major trends often foreshadow a gloomy version of the future, fueled by the unknown aspect of transformations underway. Indeed, it's easier to see what new technologies will destroy rather than what they will enable.

Published on January 14, the latest International Monetary Fund report on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment put global employment "exposed to AI at almost 40%, with a greater risk for advanced economies (...). 60% of jobs [there] are exposed to it." As for the benefits to be gained, the institution stated that advanced economies were best placed to exploit the benefits of AI, but didn't give any figures. We know what we're losing, not what we're gaining.

Desirable visions of future work life

The forward-looking analysis "Work in 2040," presented by INRS at the end of November 2023, predicted a loss of employee autonomy in the organization of their work. "In 2040 (...), middle management could be partly replaced by algorithms, which would dictate just-in-time instructions to employees. Coupled with the casualization of jobs, this development risks both further eroding people's autonomy and professionalism, and reinforcing their isolation," explained economist Thomas Coutrot in an interview with INRS. The expansion of algorithmic management therefore promises to raise the level of control and stress among employees a notch, even though one in two already considers themselves "in a state of stress," according to a January 18 survey by Qualisocial.

"I have the impression we're destroying what it took us decades to build," said Jean-Marie Branstett, member of the French Workforce Commission for Work Accidents and Occupational Illness, at the presentation of the INRS work. "Hypercontrolling models are antithetical to current developments," according to Benoît Serre, vice president of the National Association of HR Directors.

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