Ukrainian leaders are increasingly concerned about a new Russian offensive, and especially about the increased output from the invader's defense industry. "Russia should not be underestimated. It has suffered heavy losses and spent a lot of ammunition. But it will retain superiority in terms of weapons, equipment, missiles and ammunition for a long time to come," wrote Valeri Zaloujny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, in an opinion article published on November 1 in the British weekly The Economist. "Its defense industry is increasing production, despite unprecedented sanctions."

The general, whose popularity in Ukraine rivals or even exceeds that of President Volodymyr Zelensky, paints an alarming picture of the military outlook. In his view, the conflict with Russia has entered a "new phase," one of long attrition, with few maneuvers, but with armies entrenched in static positions. "Currently, the conflict is gradually evolving into a war of positions, from which [history has taught us] it is always difficult to emerge, both for armed forces and for a state," wrote Zaloujny. And this change, he added, "works in Russia's favor, enabling it to rebuild its military power."

The top Ukrainian officer sees a way out in the technological advantage that could be gained from Western arms deliveries, which he lists in detail. "A war of positions is a long war with enormous risks for the Ukrainian armed forces and the state. New and innovative approaches can [enable a move] from a war of positions [back] to a war of maneuvers," he said.

Loitering munitions

But the Russian army is also demonstrating a solid capacity for adaptation and innovation, according to Zaloujny, who cites in particular the Lancet loitering munition, and Orlan and Zala drones, which are "very difficult to counter." He reveals that Russian forces have found a way to counter the American Excalibur guided shells with highly advanced electronic warfare and jamming systems. No less worrying for Ukraine is General Zaloujny's admission of "loopholes in the legislation allowing draft dodging" which "reduce the motivation of citizens to serve in the army," in the face of human resources "almost three times greater" on the Russian side.

In terms of equipment, the Kremlin is pulling out all the stops, increasing its military budget by 68% for 2024. The defense industry is rapidly falling into step to supply the front line. An investigation by the Ukrainian media outlet Skhemy, based on satellite observations, shows that several key Russian military-industrial plants have been built or expanded in recent months.

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