After Caesar guns in February 2022, at the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, came the AMX-10 armored vehicles in January 2023, and then the Scalp missiles in July of the same year. France has taken a further step in its aid by promising Kyiv an as yet unspecified number of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets. The delivery is intended to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities, which are notably lacking in the region around Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city, which suffers from constant Russian aviation fire.
"Tomorrow, we will be launching new cooperation and announcing the transfer of Mirage 2000-5s that will enable Ukraine to protect its land and airspace," Macron announced on Thursday, June 6. The French president also promised to start a pilot training program in France at the same time – a "key factor" in the aircraft's entry-into-service time – which he said would be completed by the end of the year. As for the number and origin of these aircraft, both questions remain unanswered, but the head of state confirmed that an "international coalition," along the lines of the one formed for the American-made F-16s, is in the process of being set up. "I won't give you the names of the partners, nor a definitive figure (...) It's more effective and gives the adversary less visibility," he added the next day.
The Mirage 2000-5, an evolution of its predecessor, the 2000C, is the oldest aircraft in service with the French airforce. In service for almost 25 years, this model is certainly less powerful than the Rafale, destined to replace it by 2030, but it is far from obsolete. It remains an essential part of the defense of the French skies as well as external operations, notably under the aegis of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
As suggested by Macron, it is used as something of a "sky cleaner," a function it fulfilled in Syria, for example, in support of the Rafales involved in the 2018 Hamilton mission, conducted to sanction the use of chemical weapons by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It can also be used for ground attack missions, "already tested and implemented by other nations possessing this type of aircraft," according to the French airforce, which does not however use it for this purpose.
In terms of air defense, its main asset is its Radar Doppler Multitarget, known by its acronym RDY, which can detect up to 24 targets, track them at night, and simultaneously fire four MICA (Missile for Interception, Combat and Self-Defense) missiles with a range of 80 kilometers at as many separate targets. It can be guided in "Fox 3" mode, a NATO code which means that the missile, initially guided by the aircraft's radar, only "opens its eyes" using its electromagnetic or infrared homing beacon once it is close to its target, in order to steer itself. Only then is the pilot of the target aircraft warned that he has been "hooked," leaving him little time to react.
The French airforce has 26 of these aircraft, barely sufficient to meet its operational requirements and those of the international missions to which they contribute. Most of them are used by the 1/2 Cigognes squadron, based at Luxeuil, southeastern France, where one of them crashed in November 2022. Four others are permanently based in Djibouti, under a defense agreement, and a few regularly take part in NATO's Enhanced Air Policing mission, which involves deterring Russian aircraft from venturing into Euro-Atlantic airspace. Four aircraft were deployed in Lithuania in November, and two in Sweden in February.
Given that a squadron is made up of some 20 craft, taking some from the stock of the Luxeuil squadron would put an end to its existence, while the others seem no less essential. The coalition, which Macron announced on Thursday, would therefore be tasked with finding them abroad. Sixty have already been delivered to Taiwan, where they seem just as vital given ongoing tensions with China. The dozen or so used by Qatari forces are clearly less so, since the emirate has been trying in vain to sell them to Indonesia for several years. The United Arab Emirates are also equipped with them, as is Greece, which is also looking to dispose of them, as Defense Minister Nikos Dendias confirmed at the end of March in a press conference.
The number will remain well below that of the F-16s, though. A total of 111 Mirage 2000-5s have been produced, according to Dassault, while 2,300 of its American competitors are in service in 25 countries. "This is why the model was favored by the Ukrainian authorities and their allies from the outset," said Jean-Claude Allard, a researcher at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) and an expert in army aeronautics.
Following authorization from Washington, the Netherlands and Denmark committed to delivering 61 F-16s in August. Norway followed, then Belgium promised some, the first this year and the others by 2028. "The same thing happened with the Leopard tank," not just because of availability, but because of integration issues, continued the expert. "The diversification of models leads to the multiplication of logistics chains and ties up personnel who could be useful for something else. In the case of the Mirage 2000-5, we're talking about a very small fleet, which we know are very difficult to manage and maintain, and monopolize manpower," he added.
Whatever their number, their usefulness is in any case not guaranteed, according to Justin Bronk, a defense systems expert and researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Training pilots and maintenance personnel – 160 to 280 per squadron – as well as setting up logistics chains could even be detrimental to the deployment of the F-16s, he believes. This is why Sweden has recently decided not to supply Gripen fighters, even though they are better suited than Mirages to the needs of the Ukrainian army, explained the British researcher, deeming the French decision "a little strange," not only because of the timetable but also because of the weapons involved.
"What the Ukrainian air force needs most urgently is the ability to 'engage' Russian fighters operating 50, 60 or 70 kilometers behind the front line, at very high altitude and high speed," said Bronk. "Only long-range missiles can be truly effective, and the MICA's range is considerably shorter than that of the American AIM-120 AMRAAM, which the F-16s will probably be equipped with, and which is not even sufficient."
"To get close to the front line and bring Russian aircraft within range, you have to fly very low. This means that the missile starts its trajectory in a very dense atmosphere and has to fight against gravity," he explained, adding that the "no escape zone" – in other words, the distance that guarantees the effectiveness of the shot – is, as a general rule, between a third and a quarter of the maximum range.
"That's not to say that the Mirage 2000-5 can't play other roles, such as shooting down Russian drones, but given the financial, logistical and human constraints, I'm not convinced it's a good idea at the moment," concluded Bronk.
The second part of Macron's announcements, concerning the training in France of 4,500 Ukrainian military personnel, the equivalent of a brigade, seems much more logical to him. "The training provided by Kyiv's allies until now has been reduced both in time and in terms of numbers, which was one of the limiting factors in last summer's counteroffensive."
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.