LETTER FROM BRUSSELS

In Brussels, the two administrations are only a few kilometers apart but have been staring each other down for a long time. Northeast of Brussels near Zaventem airport lies the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – which brings together 32 allies, including the US – and its 4,000 international civil servants, diplomats and military personnel responsible for the collective defense of the European continent.

Further south, around the Schuman traffic circle in the European quarter, tens of thousands of technocrats work for the institutions of the European Union (EU), which has asserted itself in the defense field since the UK's exit in January 2020 and the adoption in 2022 of its first strategic compass, its security and defense development plan, and, of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In two years, the EU has facilitated the transfer of over 10 billion euros worth of arms from its member states to Ukraine, financed the training of 65,000 Ukrainian soldiers, subsidized investments in the defense industry to the tune of 500 million euros, and even co-financed arms purchases worth 300 million euros, part of which was destined for Kyiv.

Since 2021, it has also funded defense industry research cooperation. The new EU executive, which will include a new Defense Commissioner, the Lithuanian Andreas Kubilius – in addition to Kaja Kallas, the future High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy –is due to present a White Paper on defense within three months.

So, what direction will the EU and NATO take when Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office in January? The appointment as head of NATO of former Dutch liberal prime minister Mark Rutte, one of the EU's heavyweights of the last 14 years, and the arrival of Estonian Kallas in the role of European foreign minister, replacing Josep Borrell, tend to reassure proponents of cooperation. "It's a good omen," said one European diplomat, as the two leaders, who know each other well, met officially on Tuesday, November 19.

For a long while, the mere mention of the EU at Alliance headquarters gave NATO executives hives, as the two organizations pretended to ignore each other. Rutte's predecessor, Norway's Jens Stoltenberg, had a good relationship with Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president, but was constantly annoyed by the EU's military pretensions. The EU has set up a military command center to manage European military missions on land in Africa and at sea in the Mediterranean and Red Sea. The EU is also in the process of setting up an autonomous 5,000-strong rapid reaction force, which had already organized an exercise in Cadiz, Spain, in 2023. A further exercise is planned for Germany in 2025.

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