Michel Barnier's government could soon be overthrown. On Monday, December 2, the government, lacking a majority, activated to Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force the social security budget bill to be passed without a vote in the final reading of the Assemblée Nationale.

The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) left-wing alliance – which brings together radical-left La France Insoumise, the Parti Socialiste, the Greens and the Communist Party – tabled a motion of no-confidence. The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) said it would vote in favor of it and tabled its own motion of no-confidence.

The addition of all the RN votes together with those of the left-wing coalition should mathematically be enough to overthrow the government. There are still elements of uncertainty, however, as each MP is free to decide individually how to vote.

Test various voting configurations with our simulator, to reach the majority of votes needed to overthrow the Barnier government − set at 288 − since two of the Assemblée Nationale's 577 seats are vacant. You can include entire groups but also consider that some MPs will decide not to follow their group's instructions − in that case, simply change the number of voters with the plus or minus signs next to the party names.