Vote counting in Ireland's general election gets underway Saturday, November 30, with an exit poll indicating a tight finish between the three main parties. After voting concluded late Friday, an exit poll indicated that pro-Irish unity party Sinn Féin were leading with 21.1% of the vote. But neck and neck on 21% was the centre-right Fine Gael whose leader is the outgoing prime minister Simon Harris.
Fine Gael's centre-right partner in the outgoing coalition – Fianna Fáil, led by deputy prime minister Micheál Martin – were slightly further back in third with 19.5%. Counting begins at 0900 GMT Saturday with partial results expected throughout the day.
A final result, however, may not be clear for days as EU member Ireland's proportional representation system sees votes of eliminated candidates redistributed during multiple rounds of counting. During the last parliamentary term, the role of prime minister rotated between the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael leaders. The smaller Green Party made up the governing coalition.
The three-week campaign, launched after Harris called a snap election November 8, was marked by rancour over housing and cost-of-living crises, public spending and immigration. Harris, who became Ireland's youngest-ever taoiseach (prime minister) when he took over in April, held a solid lead entering the campaign. But the party lost ground, in particular after Harris was seen in a viral clip appearing rude and dismissive to a care worker on the campaign trail.
Both centre-right parties stressed their pro-business and pro-EU credentials and said returning them to power would ensure stability, particularly with turmoil abroad and the risk of external shocks.
Ireland's economy depends on foreign direct investment and lavish corporate tax returns from mainly US tech and pharma giants. But threats from incoming US president Donald Trump to slap tariffs on imports and repatriate corporate tax of US firms from countries such as Ireland have caused concern for the country's economic model.
At the last general election in 2020, Sinn Féin – the former political wing of the paramilitary Irish Republican Army – won the popular vote but could not find willing coalition partners. That led to weeks of horsetrading, ending up with Fine Gael, which has been in power since 2011, agreeing a deal with Fianna Fáil.
Mary Lou McDonald's Sinn Féin, the largest opposition party, saw a dip in support in the past year because of its progressive stance on social issues and migration policy, as immigration became a key election issue. But it rallied on the back of a campaign heavily focused on housing policy and claimed it is the only alternative to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which have swapped power since Irish independence from Britain in 1921.
McDonald, 55, who would be Ireland's first ever female taoiseach, called Friday "a historic day where we can elect a new government for change."