2024 promises to be rich in elections, the like of which has not been seen since the creation of universal suffrage in France in 1792, when only men had the right to vote. This year, 4.1 billion people − half the world's population − will be living in countries where elections will be held. Multiple ballots (presidential, legislative, regional, municipal) will be held in 68 countries. These include the United States, Brazil, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Russia: eight of the world's 10 most populous countries.

Bangladesh has opened the electoral ball on Sunday, January 7 with a legislative election with no stakes, since the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, has chosen to boycott the ballot in protest against the massive repression it is subjected to. On January 13, all eyes will turn to Taiwan, where the outcome of both the presidential and legislative elections will have a major impact on cross-strait relations and the future relationship between the US and China.

Indonesia and Pakistan, respectively the world's fourth and fifth most populous countries, will hold their elections in February. Jakarta will elect a new leader, probably Prabowo Subianto, military dictator Suharto's son-in-law and current minister of defense. Islamabad is counting on the legislative elections to end the political crisis that led to the ousting and imprisonment of former prime minister Imran Khan. In May, unsurprising legislative elections will be held in India, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is widely expected to win.

This marathon does not mean that a revival of democracy is underway − far from it. Simply holding an election does not guarantee a free and fair electoral process. Varying in size, political system and influence, the states where elections will be held throughout 2024 will organize them with different degrees of democracy and fairness.

Suspense in the United States

Some are a foregone conclusion, others are not. The suspense is real in the United States, where the possible return to power of former president Donald Trump, who could face current president Joe Biden in the presidential election scheduled for November 5, risks upsetting the geopolitical balance and drying up financial and military support for Ukraine.

Suspense is also brewing in Europe, where elections to the European Parliament in June could lead to a surge in far-right populism and Euroscepticism. Change is also possible in South Africa, where the African National Congress, in power since the end of apartheid, risks losing its majority.

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