While Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, the Kremlin is continuing to redeploy its military presence in the Black Sea. This change, corroborated by multiple sources, is due to the significant damage caused in Crimea by the long-range Western missiles used by Ukrainians, as well as the rise of naval drones, one of Kyiv's specialties.

Several American and Ukrainian statements made in early July even suggested that the Russian Black Sea fleet was in the process of leaving Crimea. On July 8, John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, said, "They sunk the last cruise-missile capable warship in the port of Sevastopol." On July 15, Ukrainian Navy Chief, Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, stated: "The Russian navy's Black Sea Fleet has been forced to rebase nearly all its combat-ready warships from occupied Crimea to other locations."

Russia's adjustment of its naval setup has not been officially confirmed by the Kremlin. Le Monde has found that some warships remain in the port of Sevastopol. The Kremlin's forceful response on July 18, claiming to have destroyed around 10 naval drones, bears witness to this. However, there is a noticeable continuous decrease in the number of Russian ships in the port of Sevastopol, according to satellite image analysis conducted for Le Monde by Masae Analytics, over a period from March 21 to July 14.

This development coincides with another move, identified on July 3, and also backed up by satellite imagery: The arrival, for the first time, of a Russian tugboat in Ochamchire, a port in Abkhazia – a separatist region of Georgia on the Black Sea coast. "In my view, this is a big development in Russo-Ukraine war in Black Sea, part of that big picture," said British analyst H. I. Sutton, specializing in open-source intelligence, who detected the move.

Previously, this Russian patrol boat was anchored in the port of Novorossiysk, on Russian territory, where Russia began sheltering many of its warships previously deployed in Sevastopol. The vessel disappeared from satellite images on July 1, only to reappear in Georgian waters on July 3, some 400 kilometers further south. This ship was the first spotted in Ochamchire, but others may follow, said experts.

For over two years, Ukrainians have deployed unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) in the Black Sea, capable of conducting attacks hundreds of kilometers from the coast. According to the Ukrainian NGO Black Sea Institute, since the war began, about 20 Russian ships have been destroyed by these devices, and another 20 have been damaged, totaling a third of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Most were small patrol boats and landing craft.

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