The issue is getting more worrisome in Ukraine as the days get shorter and the temperatures drop. As nine waves of massive Russian strikes on the country's energy infrastructure have caused major power outages since March, the population is worried about the coming winter and its sub-zero temperatures, when power demand will rise.
On Thursday, September 19, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) had some particularly alarming words about the coming months. "Ukraine's energy system has made it through the past two winters (...), But this winter will be, by far, its sternest test yet," said Fatih Birol in Brussels during a press conference presenting the agency's latest report on the war-torn country's energy security.
Beyond its worrying assessment of the current situation, the document, entitled Ukraine's Energy Security and the Coming Winter, presented ten urgent recommendations to meet the country's energy needs over the coming months. The IEA stressed the importance of securing and fortifying as much of the country's critical infrastructure as possible. It also called on Kyiv's partners to "expedite" equipment and spare parts deliveries. In addition, the agency highlighted the importance for the energy system to focus on decentralizing the electricity supply by procuring diesel generators, small gas-powered combined heat and power plants, and solar photovoltaic power plants...
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Friday, presented a €160 million European Union energy assistance plan, part of which will be used to repair damaged energy facilities covering 15% of Ukraine's power consumption needs.
On Thursday, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine presented an equally alarming report. "While Ukrainian authorities, energy companies, and humanitarian and recovery agencies are engaged in immense mitigation efforts to avert a humanitarian crisis, Ukraine will face a significant electricity deficit in the winter, with daily power cuts during the cold months leaving civilians without the electricity they need to power homes, run water pumps and allow children to study online," the document states. "Some areas may lose heating."
As demand for electricity in Ukraine could rise to 18.5 gigawatts (GW) at the height of winter, the International Energy Agency observed a deficit of 6 GW in generation capacity, "equivalent to peak annual demand in Denmark." The experts interviewed in the UN report also estimate that power cuts could last "between 4 and 10 hours per day," depending on temperatures and the progress of repair on power plants. This estimate does not take into account the possibility of further Russian strikes on the infrastructure. "Any additional attacks leading to prolonged electricity blackouts could have catastrophic consequences," warned Danielle Bell, head of the UN Mission.
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