Kyiv had never struck at such a distance before. On January 17 and on the following days, several explosive-equipped drones hit the Russian region of Saint Petersburg, 900 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The Ust-Luga terminal, overlooking the Baltic Sea and home to some of Russia's most important liquefied natural gas infrastructure, was bombed on January 21, causing a massive fire and forcing local authorities to declare a "maximum alert."

These unprecedented bombardments show that the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase. Following the failure of Kyiv's counter-offensive in the summer of 2023, the Ukrainian general staff has come to terms with the fact that the front is now frozen, and will remain so for a long time to come. Although fighting continues, sometimes even intensively, as is the case at Avdiivka and Kupiansk, neither side now has the means to break through their opponent's fortified lines, let alone exploit such a possible breakthrough.

In the winter of 2022-2023, the Russians created a triple defensive line covering the whole of southern Ukraine – the famous Sourovikine line, named after the general then stationed in the region. But now the Ukrainians are digging trenches, laying anti-tank obstacles – known as "dragon's teeth" – and mining fields to prevent opposing maneuvers. "The Ukrainians are in the process of sealing off their vital space," said a French officer.

In the skies, the permanent presence of innumerable observation drones makes any maneuver difficult: According to the British military, the Russians now only need three to six minutes to bomb a target once it has been detected. "The problem at the front is that it is no longer possible to create strategic surprise. The quantity of ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] resources is such that you can no longer hide, everything is transparent," explained Stéphane Audrand, an international risk consultant and reserve officer.

Unable to move on the front line, the Ukrainians have decided to take their fight elsewhere. Since the start of the winter, Kyiv's forces have been stepping up missile and drone strikes deep inside the enemy's defenses, on the Crimean Peninsula as well as in Russian territory. "Ukraine has changed its posture and decided to focus on more targeted attacks," explained a military source, pointing to a "strategy of attrition [that] is already achieving tangible results." "We are witnessing an increase in delaying strategies, with deep strikes designed to achieve an operational impact," confirmed Thibault Fouillet, scientific director of the French Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies.

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