<img src="https://img.lemde.fr/2023/07/29/0/0/4724/3149/664/0/75/0/625b66a_1690610794849-lvds1390-b-07-23v.jpg" srcset=" https://img.lemde.fr/2023/07/29/0/0/4724/3149/556/0/75/0/625b66a_1690610794849-lvds1390-b-07-23v.jpg 556w, https://img.lemde.fr/2023/07/29/0/0/4724/3149/600/0/75/0/625b66a_1690610794849-lvds1390-b-07-23v.jpg 600w, https://img.lemde.fr/2023/07/29/0/0/4724/3149/664/0/75/0/625b66a_1690610794849-lvds1390-b-07-23v.jpg 664w, https://img.lemde.fr/2023/07/29/0/0/4724/3149/700/0/75/0/625b66a_1690610794849-lvds1390-b-07-23v.jpg 700w, https://img.lemde.fr/2023/07/29/0/0/4724/3149/800/0/75/0/625b66a_1690610794849-lvds1390-b-07-23v.jpg 800w" sizes="(min-width: 1024px) 556px, 100vw" alt="Eastern Front, Serebryansky Forest, Ukraine, July 27, 2023 The brigade commander leaves the front fighting posts, under a heavy barrage of artillery fire. " we're="" outnumbered,="" we="" don't="" have="" their="" firepower,="" to="" be="" better.="" i'm="" here="" support="" my="" men="" in="" battle,"="" he="" explained.="" photo:="" laurent="" van="" der="" stockt,="" for="" le="" monde"="" width="100%" height="auto">
At a hearing on July 12 before the Assembleé Nationale's Committee on National Defense and Armed Forces, French General Jacques Langlade de Montgros warned that the war in Ukraine "will continue until 2024, or even 2025." A rare admission by the head of the military intelligence directorate, who was not very optimistic about the success of the counter-offensive launched by Kyiv. "This conflict is a war of attrition, set for the long term," the general said, evoking "two boxers in a ring, exhausting each other blow by blow, not knowing which one will call first."
Just over two months after Kyiv launched its first counter-offensive maneuvers, military officers and analysts alike agree that the Ukrainian army is unable – at least for the time being – to break through the thick wall of fortifications erected by the Russians along some 900 kilometers of the frontline. Volodymyr Zelensky himself admits as much. "The counter-offensive is difficult," the Ukrainian president repeated in an interview published on August 7 in several South American media. "Progress is probably slower than some people would like or imagine."
Since the first assaults launched by its troops on June 4, Ukraine has been gaining ground, but only marginally. In July, Kyiv's soldiers are said to have regained 85 square kilometers of their territory, following initial gains of around 200 square kilometers in June, according to the War Mapper website, which updates daily maps of the conflict. Progress has been very slow. Since the end of May, the Russians have lost just 0.1% of Ukrainian territory, and still occupy over 100,000 square kilometers, or around 17.5% of the country. On Wednesday, August 16, the Ukrainians did claim the capture of Urozhay, on the southern front line, but this is just one village, with a population of 1,000 people before the February 2022 invasion.
There are several reasons for this slower-than-expected progress. The first has to do with Russian preparation. Unlike the successful counter-offensives of autumn 2022 in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, this time Moscow's forces had time to prepare for the Ukrainian onslaught. Huge lines of fortifications have been erected, particularly in the south of the country. Today, thousands of trenches, bunkers, dragon's teeth, etc. can be found some 30 kilometers deep. "Russia has designed one of the largest defensive systems in Europe since the Second World War," according to a report published on June 9 by the American think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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