Pressure is mounting on the leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom and France over the conditions on the use of the long-range missiles they have supplied to the Ukrainians in recent months, which are capable of striking deep into Russia's territory to destroy its military bases.
As Kyiv seeks to hold on to the territory conquered in its surprise summer offensive (around 1,300 square kilometers) in Russia's Kursk region, all the while curbing the enemy army's advance into the Donbas, it has been stepping up its statements in favor of lifting the restrictions on the use of certain Western-supplied weapons – those with ranges over 250 kilometers.
The subject was at the heart of an unprecedented joint visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, September 11, by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy. The two men met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been pushing for such an option for many months. Yet no concrete measures were announced. Rather, Blinken merely reaffirmed that the visit proved that "we remain fully committed to Ukraine’s victory."
The day before, however, US President Joe Biden had said that his administration was "working" on lifting the restrictions. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Washington on Friday to clarify his plan. "That included wanting to get a better sense of what Kyiv wants to target and why," the agency wrote, citing unidentified officials.
This prospect has been taken seriously by the Kremlin, which, on Wednesday, promised an "appropriate" response to any change in doctrine on the part of Kyiv's allies. "Each of these decisions, taken by the collective West [is] an additional confirmation of the justification, necessity and inevitability," said Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
"If we are allowed to destroy military targets [in Russia] or weapons prepared by the enemy for attacks on Ukraine, it would certainly bring more safety for our civilians, our people, and our children," argued Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, after talks with Lammy. "Without that, we have no chance of success. We just want to survive, we don't want to involve you in this war," also said a Ukrainian official as he recently visited Paris, confirming that discussions between Kyiv and its allies on this subject were intense.
The military stakes for Kyiv are indeed high. According to a map, published on August 27, by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American think-tank, nearly 250 military bases and other objects in Russia could be struck by Western long-range missiles: Regimental bases, warehouses, communications centers, maintenance hangars and 16 air bases. To avoid drone attacks, the Russians have already moved much of their air fleet out of this "at risk" zone. However, a massive redeployment of Russian troops and bases several hundred kilometers from the border "would present significant challenges to Russian logistics," wrote the ISW, highlighting that no such large-scale maneuvers have been observed.
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