Ukraine is fighting an existential battle against an enemy with a population four times larger, while at the same time hemorrhaging part of its own population. Women and children are fleeing to healthier climes. The country's population was estimated to be between 38 and 42 million on February 24, 2022. Since then, between 5 and 8 million people have emigrated. A significant proportion of them are likely to settle abroad permanently. Some countries have offered attractive prospects for integration. It is mainly women and children who are emigrating, as martial law prohibits able-bodied men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country.

Since no population census has been carried out since 2000, demographers only have estimates to go by. High levels of migration, which began long before the Russian invasion, further complicate the picture. "The official Ukrainian statistical data are not usable, as they are based on assessments that date back to the Soviet era," when the authorities had rigid social control instruments at their disposal, said Alain Blum, demographer and director of research at the French institute of demography.

In 1991 Ukraine ranked 22nd in the list of world's most populous countries. It is now 41st. "We've already lost 10 million people in three decades. This is a very rapid rate of decline," said Oleksandr Gladoune, demographer and director of the demographic modeling and forecasting department at the Ptoukha Institute in Kyiv. His colleague Ella Libanova, director of the same institute, points out that "fertility had already fallen to 1.2 children per woman by 2021. This is a long way from the replacement rate (2.15 children per woman), given Ukrainian mortality rates." The war has accelerated the fall in fertility: it was 0.9 in 2022 and Libanova estimates that it will be 0.7 in 2023 and 2024.

In addition to the direct impact of the war (mortality, emigration, deportations to Russia), other factors will have a negative impact on Ukraine's demographic situation (albeit indirect and delayed). Demographers expect a rise in the death rate in Ukraine and a deterioration in the health of Ukrainian citizens. Reasons include deteriorating living conditions, feelings of insecurity and permanent stress, loss of home, job or income; colder homes caused by Russian bombing of energy infrastructure; less access to health services and medicines, and to good-quality food. War has a devastating impact on mental health, causing post-traumatic syndromes, and sending the most vulnerable into depression.

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