Turkish media described the vote as "decisive" for Sweden's future. It was greeted in Stockholm with palpable relief, but no more than that. In Western capitals, it was greeted with only polite applause, reflecting the growing divide between Ankara and the other NATO members, a gap that continued to widen throughout the interminable negotiations.
It took four hours on Tuesday, January 23, for lawmakers from Turkey's presidential majority to adopt, by 287 votes to 55, the protocol for Sweden's accession to the Atlantic Alliance, which has been on hold since May 2022.
Turkey's head of state, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will now sign the text. In theory, this is a formality, which he should complete in the next few days. At that point, Hungary will be the only one of the 31 members of the Alliance not to have given the Scandinavian state the green light. On Tuesday morning, when the Turkish parliament's vote seemed to be confirmed, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban invited his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, to come to Budapest to "negotiate." But the Swedes, clearly affected by their experience with Turkey, merely replied that they would "look into the matter."
Beyond the numbers and the timeline, the 20 months of stalemate have given us a glimpse of the deep fault line within the NATO community, especially highlighting Turkey's stark contrast with its allies. How many times have the strongman in Ankara and his inner circle hinted at a way out of the crisis before going on to make new demands? How many times have the Turkish authorities seemed on the verge of committing themselves, only to change their minds? This has resulted in a mix of bewilderment and subdued anger among most Western diplomats toward the Turkish presidency.
It took 20 long months of wrangling, tension, compromises and door slamming to reach an agreement that was, ultimately, of little benefit to Turkey. In exchange for the vote of its Parliament, Ankara obtained a vague promise of support from Sweden for its deeply uncertain EU membership bid. Additionally, it received a commitment from US President Joe Biden to collaborate with Congress on a potential agreement – which is far from guaranteed – for the sale of the 40 F-16 fighter jets that Turkey has been requesting for years to modernize its air force.
The negotiations had begun in the early weeks following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Stockholm's official application to join NATO, its natural consequence. For months, Turkish leaders had been putting pressure on the Swedish government, denouncing its leniency towards certain Turkish and Kurdish refugees, accused of "terrorism" by Ankara. This included members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), considered a terrorist organization by Ankara and its Western allies, as well as sympathizers of the movement of the preacher Fethullah Gülen, whom the Turkish government considers responsible for the failed military coup of July 15, 2016.
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