It's hard for a rational mind to understand Donald Trump's logic. He fosters unpredictability, the politics of emotion, and a certain contempt for the truth. Hence why it's best to take an empirical, observational approach. For now, only the nominations and a few initial announcements should be taken at face value.

The choices announced or considered outline a Trump administration that will be divided not between two camps but between two polarities. The closer the field is to international strategy, the more his choices are based on competence and rational options, men who have listened and learned at length. The closer it is to domestic politics and societal issues, the more erratic the appointments seem, with personalities created by social media, the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement and conservative or denialist fundamentalism. These are the two opposite ends of Trump's cabinet. An unpredictable development, considering what was uttered during the presidential campaign.

Thus, Marco Rubio (Republican senator from Florida and Trump's main competitor in the primary elections) for the State Department and Michael Waltz (member of the House of Representatives and proven former military adviser) at the National Security Council both have solid strategic knowledge. Their convictions run counter to isolationism without advocating "abandoning" Europe. Waltz now speaks of the need to "restore deterrence" in the Ukrainian conflict and find a "responsible" end to the war. Both emphasize the challenge posed by China, a subject to which they have devoted much energy in Congress.

Loyalty, a key criterion

Scott Bessent, former George Soros adviser and oracle of the financial markets, has been appointed to the Treasury. His focus is on deregulation and purchasing power. SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who has become a close associate of the president, failed to get Howard Lutnick, the iconic financier of Cantor Fitzgerald, nearly 70% of whose workforce died in the 9/11 attacks, appointed to this position. Lutnick has been put in charge of trade and has mainly advocated increased tariffs on European products. As for Trump, he just took a first stance in favor of tariffs targeting China, Mexico and Canada: Chinese sales will have a hard time bypassing American barriers through neighboring countries.

Certainly, none of them will make concessions for Europe – not on defense commitments, trade negotiations, or Europe's hesitations in the Middle East. But each offers a clear, if not identical, line.

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