In January 2017, Donald Trump's arrival at the White House was marked by his exit from the Paris climate agreement and by a travel ban stopping nationals of seven Muslim-majority countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen) from entering the United States. In January 2025, for his return, two major measures are likely to be taken immediately: the introduction of additional tariffs on imports and the mass deportation of migrants without legal residence permits in the US. As in 2017, the aim will be to shock, hurt and act within the powers conferred on the US president. No matter if the courts get involved.
As far as tariffs are concerned, the president has the right to implement them. The days when this prerogative was the sole domain of Congress have been gone for decades. Trump has proposed a minimum 10% tax on all imports, while those from China would be subject to a 60% tax. Prior to the election, French luxury companies made every effort to contact the Trump team to avoid such sanctions. No one knows whether the 10% amount will be applied. No one knows whether Canada and Mexico, linked with the US by a free trade agreement revisited under Trump, will be affected. No one knows whether China will receive as high a penalty as promised. But no one doubts that Trump will take action, if only to maintain his credibility.
"Donald Trump will impose some tariffs from day one. Not 100%, but it's in his interest to activate a serious threat to make it credible. And the more people say it's a negotiating stance, the more he'll have to do it. Otherwise, he'll come across as weak, indecisive and a liar," explained Adam Posen, president of the transatlantic think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), before the election. Posen pointed out that Trump's threat concerns much larger amounts than during his previous term. This policy could be implemented by Republican protectionist Robert Lighthizer, trade representative under Trump's first administration.
According to a study by PIIE researchers Mary Lovely and Kimberly Clausing, these tariffs would hit the equivalent of around 11% of US gross domestic product (GDP), compared with 1.8% during the first trade war. These measures would disrupt production chains. They would lead to a financial transfer from the poor to the rich, with the former buying more imported goods as a percentage of their income. The disposable income of the poorest 20% of Americans would fall by 4.2%, while that of median-income households would decline by 2.7%. At the same time, Trump is expected to roll back antitrust measures and tackle the repeated fines imposed by the European Union on major tech companies. In any event, Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, complained about this to the Republican candidate during the election campaign.
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