Let's give Donald Trump his due: The United States has obtained – extorted, some would say – Ukraine's agreement to a temporary ceasefire with Russia. And let's give Kyiv credit for having resisted tooth and nail for 10 days, before settling on a proposal from Washington that is the least unfavorable to them.
On the face of it, the document signed on Tuesday, March 11, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, marks at least the beginnings of an improvement in US-Ukrainian relations. If Moscow agrees to it in turn, the cessation of fighting could be the prelude to peace negotiations – after three years of a war as deadly as it is destructive. But these will be far more difficult than the conversations of recent days on the shores of the Red Sea.
Trump is wrong when he considers, as he said on Tuesday, that a shared ceasefire would be a giant step toward ending the conflict: "I really think that would be 75% of the way, the rest is getting it documented, you know, negotiating land positions." Basically, a notarial matter.
Moscow's response will be an indication of the White House's ability to influence the Kremlin's decisions. With this Republican administration, which has sided with the Russians, Vladimir Putin has already achieved a great deal: Rewriting history by blaming Ukraine for the war. Beginning to delegitimize President Volodymyr Zelensky, described by Trump as a "dictator." No to Ukraine's possible entry into NATO. No to a NATO force to monitor the ceasefire and then a peace agreement – that's up to the Europeans. Prior acceptance to the amputation of 20% of Ukrainian territory.
What about security guarantees for Kyiv in exchange? This question is "about 2% of the problem," believes Trump. Whether in bad faith or because of an excess of optimism, he imagines that Putin's regime is not going to attack a country whose subsoil the US is exploiting: The "master dealmaker" extols the strategic virtues of the agreement Washington is going to sign on the extraction of Ukrainian rare earths.
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