New Hampshire is no longer New Hampshire. "It feels more like a corpse than a campaign," writes Politico harshly, about the second stop of the Republican primary, scheduled for Tuesday, January 23. There's no traditional debate between candidates on the local channel. Instead, this year is marked by an avalanche of leaflets in mailboxes, few public rallies and small turnouts for events. There's one overwhelming favorite, Donald Trump, preoccupied with his court cases but backed by a rigorous campaign. Then there's another candidate, Ron DeSantis, who announced his withdrawal 48 hours before the vote. And then there's Nikki Haley.
The former UN ambassador's destiny is at stake here. But she faces a daunting equation: She must avoid losing conservative voters to the former president, while also striving to attract as many moderates and independents as possible, a key constituency in this state. Senator John McCain achieved this feat in 2000 and 2008. But now, the Republican Party is no longer playing by its old rules.
The primary is thus reduced to a duel, just before the New Hampshire vote. It gains in clarity what it has lost in suspense, becoming a referendum on the former president. "We're not a country of coronations," Haley wrote on January 21, after DeSantis withdrew, proposing "a new conservative road." Trump's supporters are as enthusiastic as ever. The others are operating at a lower voltage. "There's a lack of engagement, an apathy that we've never seen," said Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the Republican Party in New Hampshire and a city councilor in Dover. "People vote when they're inspired or angry. This time, voters aren't excited by anyone except fervent Trump supporters."
In a poll released after the Iowa caucuses by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, Trump and Haley had both gained seven points in a week. The study put Trump in the lead at 52%, with Haley at 38%, a significant gap given that New Hampshire is considered to be the state most favorable to Haley. This gap was identical in more recent studies. Their progression was due to the withdrawal of entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, close to the ex-president, and Chris Christie.
The details of the poll give the former South Carolina governor further cause for concern. Trump was almost even with her among college graduates (41% vs. 46%), while crushing her among his core target group of non-graduates. The support given to Trump on January 19 by another former candidate, Tim Scott, was a small betrayal for Haley, who had enabled him to become a senator. Like her, Scott hails from South Carolina, where on February 24 he will lend his popularity among the most religious fringe of the Republican electorate to the former president. His name has been mentioned as one of Trump's possible running mates.
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