Two days after the American elections on November 5, the leaders of the European Union's 27 member states are to meet in Budapest. On Thursday, they will have an initial discussion regarding the elections at a dinner in the Hungarian capital. The following day, they will gather for a summit of European heads of state and government, which is officially supposed to be devoted to economic competitiveness.

Among them, a tiny minority want Donald Trump to win. His most fervent supporter is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country holds the presidency of the Council of the EU until the end of December. He called Trump on October 31 to wish him good luck. "Fingers crossed," said the nationalist leader on X, planning to pop the champagne if the Republican candidate is elected. It's a safe bet that Slovakia's Robert Fico would also welcome such an outcome.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni remains ambiguous. She made the choice of working with the Biden administration when she came to power two years ago, but she leads the post-fascist party Fratelli d'Italia, which maintains friendly relations with Trump's teams. It did not go unnoticed that she warmly thanked the Trump-supporting owner of X, Elon Musk – a "precious genius," as she described him – when he presented her with the Atlantic Council's Global Citizen Award on September 23. Meanwhile, the vast majority of European leaders, from Paris to Berlin, Madrid, Stockholm and Warsaw, would prefer the Democrat Kamala Harris to be elected.

In Budapest, "with the exception of Orban and Fico, the Europeans will have to react in the most orderly fashion possible," said a European diplomat. Between now and the European Council meeting in Brussels in December, they will have to clarify their line and how they intend to react to any decisions taken by the next American president, who will not take office until January.

They are well aware that, whoever he or she is, Washington is looking less and less toward Europe. On the economic front, both Harris and Trump are defending the "America First" policy and neither is willing to make concessions to Europe. Especially as the US trade deficit with the EU remains high and Washington is obsessed with its economic battle with Beijing. As far as security is concerned, Barack Obama, when he was president, already asked the 27 member states to take control of their own futures by increasing defense spending. None of his successors has contradicted this message since then.

You have 70.91% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.