The Russian-Ukrainian war, going on for two years now, has profoundly altered the arms trade, strengthening the US and marginalizing Russia, which is concentrating production on its own armies. In its latest annual report on global arms exports, published on Monday, March 11, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) reveals that arms imports into Europe have almost doubled (+94%) over the last five years (2019-2023) compared to the previous five years, while Russian foreign sales have been halved.
Sipri studies the market over five-year periods to smooth out the sometimes significant fluctuations from one year to the next, and clearly identify trends. Over 2019-2023, the world ranking of "cannon dealers" changed. Since February 2022, some 30 countries – led by the US – have supplied weapons to Kyiv, now the world's fourth largest importer.
For their part, many European states have acquired aircraft, helicopters, combat vehicles, and air defense systems as part of a rearmament policy, which is also designed to meet their NATO commitment to devote at least 2 % of their GDP to defense.
Director of Sipri Dan Smith pointed out that Europe, far from being marginalized, is "responsible for around a third of world exports, reflecting [its] strong military-industrial capacity." The facts and figures are stubborn, though. On March 5, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stressed that "a strong, resilient, and competitive European defense industry is a strategic imperative." The goal is a long way off.
Over the last five years, 55% of European imports came from the US, compared with 35% over 2014-2018. They now account for 42% of global defense sales, exporting more weapons to more countries. This dynamism reinforces a military-industrial complex that includes the world's leading companies in the sector, such as Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics.
The choice of Americans came as no surprise. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there was an urgent need to rearm, and despite severe strains on its industrial base, the US had a greater capacity for mobilization than Europeans and an even more assertive policy of support for Ukraine. In addition, most of Europe has been under the NATO umbrella – and therefore Washington's – since 1949, even when it had a solid defense industry, like the UK, Germany, or Italy, and now Sweden. Berlin could hardly afford to buy any aircraft other than the F-35 to carry the American deterrence force based on German soil.
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