The next few days will be crucial for the future of the European Green Deal, which is designed to take the 27 member states toward carbon neutrality by 2050. As pressure mounts on Ursula von der Leyen to amend two emblematic pieces of legislation adopted within this framework in 2023 – one against deforestation, the other to ban the marketing of internal combustion engine cars after 2035 – the European Commission president's response will be decisive.
"If we open Pandora's box," said Macronist MEP Pascal Canfin, other legislation will then be "unraveled." He explained, "Tomorrow it will be the carbon tax at borders, the day after tomorrow the extension of the carbon market to buildings and transport... All the pieces of the Green Deal will fall one after the other."
The Green Deal has been under attack for over a year. In the run-up to the European elections on June 10, debates in the EU Parliament became tense, as witnessed by the fierce brawl that accompanied the adoption of the Nature Restoration Law. Under pressure from the right and the far right, the Commission has abandoned several of its plans, such as legislation to reduce pesticide use. In the face of farmers' protests in early 2024, it also eased the environmental constraints of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
But so far, none of the laws passed in the name of the Green Deal have been reassessed. "The challenge now is to maintain what's been achieved," said green MEP Marie Toussaint. The June 10 vote saw the Christian Democrats of the European People's Party (EPP) consolidate their position in the Strasbourg Parliament, populist and nationalist parties gain ground and the Greens lose it. Now, there is now a full-scale offensive by those who want to turn the page on the EU's ambitions in the fight against climate change and environmental protection.
In their sights is the anti-deforestation regulation, which, from December 31, bans the 27 member states from importing and exporting products, such as cocoa, coffee and beef, that come from deforested land. The EPP is once again at the helm, calling for a postponement. In a strong position in the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission, the European right has no intention of stopping at the victories it has scored against the Green Deal before the summer.
In Germany, against a backdrop of economic stagnation and with one year to go before federal elections, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is particularly combative. But Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz is taking the same line. He has heard the demands of Brazil, which would be primarily affected by the deforestation rules, and fears a further breakdown in negotiations between the European Union (EU) and MERCOSUR (the economic alliance of South American countries) for a free-trade agreement. The German leader is also sensitive to pressure from Washington, which is calling on Brussels to review its plans. He said on September 12 that he intervened with Ursula von der Leyen to have the regulation suspended.
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