For several months now, a major new strategic shift has been taking shape in Europe, as a result of the war in Ukraine. While the conflict has already changed the face of land warfare since 2022, it is now rekindling confrontation in a segment of armaments that the West had totally neglected since the end of the Cold War: intermediate-range missiles, i.e. missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 km. These missiles now put Europe – and not just Ukraine – directly within range of a Russian strike.

The West is taking the threat very seriously. On Wednesday, January 8, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu made his first clear reference to these stakes in his New Year's address. "Certain countries are crossing new proliferation limits [...] and pose the risk of calling into question the major strategic balances built on international treaties," he declared.

The West's new vulnerability came to light when Moscow unexpectedly fired an intermediate-range missile at the Ukrainian town of Dnipro on November 21, 2024. It was a first in a theater of war. Until now, this type of missile had only been test-fired. Named "Orechnik," the IRBM missile (or intermediate-range ballistic missile) took the West by surprise as this weapon was not officially part of Moscow's arsenal. IRBM development, moreover, was forbidden until 2019, when Moscow and Washington withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, which since the Cold War had aimed to put an end to the arms race in Europe.

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