Donald Trump's personal triumph in the November 5 presidential election was accompanied by another political feat: the transformation of the Republican Party, which is now resulting in a historic recomposition of the American electorate.
Initial geographical and sociological analyses of the November 5 vote revealed a spectacular advance by the Grand Old Party in categories of the electorate hitherto loyal to the Democratic Party. This advance was particularly notable among Hispanic voters and the working class. To a lesser degree, it has also spread to Black men.
In eight years – through his first term in the White House and three presidential election campaigns – the former businessman has succeeded in winning over a significant proportion of the middle class, particularly Latinos, after the blue-collar workers of 2016 who were seduced by his efforts to promote protectionism. In tune with the country's changing demographics, Trump put together a multi-ethnic Republican coalition capable of attracting those at the lower end of the social scale.
Republicans are proud like never before, given the indisputable nature of the GOP's victory, after the tight result in 2016, the setbacks of 2018 and 2020, and the half-hearted midterm elections of 2022. It underlined the extent to which the Democratic Party's inability to tackle head-on the frustrations of some Americans in the face of inflation – which has eroded households' disposable income – and illegal immigration seen as uncontrolled, came at a high price. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's party let itself be fooled by good macroeconomic results and was unable to formulate a migration policy equal to the task at hand.
Unpopular outgoing president
Since his thunderous entry into politics, Trump has often been presented as capable of defying the rules of political weightlessness. However, his comfortable victory on November 5 can also be explained by the rule of thumb that an unpopular incumbent president has no chance of being re-elected. Although Biden's name was not on the ballot, the Democratic candidate, as vice president, was accountable for a record from which she was unable to escape.
Another element of Trump's political approach, the one most often denounced by his detractors, manifested itself in this campaign studded with insults, threats and lies. The assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, which Trump had encouraged, hoping to prevent the certification of Biden's victory, should have disqualified him. But, by returning the former president to the White House, voters reduced this episode to a mere distraction, at their peril.
Meanwhile, many of the slogans that Trump intends to turn into public policy – from imposing massive import taxes, likely to boost inflation, to deporting millions of undocumented migrants – could lead to chaos. Nonetheless, what the ballot boxes revealed about the Trumpist 2024 manifesto was its relevance to social concerns, irrespective of his responses. If it hopes to reconnect with voters who have once again abandoned it, the Democratic Party will have to take this into account, or resign itself to playing second fiddle.