In 2015, Paris had a population of 2,206,000; by 2021, it had just 2,133,111. For a city (and its region) accustomed to record birth rates, this loss of 73,000 Parisians in six years is historic. The trend began in 2010 and the rate has doubled over the last decade. The issue may be national in scope, but it has received a lot of media attention. "Parisians are fleeing Paris," "Paris is losing its appeal," ran the headlines. Right-wing parties opposed to the Socialist mayor of Paris, led by Rachida Dati, used this as another anti-Anne Hidalgo argument, even though the 7th arrondissement, where Dati – a former Nicolas Sarkozy minister and the current minister of culture – has been mayor since 2008, is proportionally the most depopulated.
The spectacular fall in the birth rate is the first explanation. In 2022, 32,000 children were born in the capital. By 2023, the figure had fallen to 22,000. The phenomenon has accelerated since Covid-19 (-18% between 2020 and 2023). "We don't yet know whether this is postponement, whether these children will be born later, or whether it's a choice," said Noémie De Andrade, a demographer at the Institut Paris Région.
But those who see this as the result of a post-Covid exodus are mistaken. Departures increased after lockdown, but since then the numbers have remained stable, explained Sandra Roger and Emilie Moreau, a statistician and a director of studies at the Atelier Parisien d'Urbanisme. The number of people arriving in the city, on the other hand, has fallen, which provides another part of the explanation.
A surge in vacation rentals
"The demographics of a city are closely linked to the real estate market, for better or for worse," explained Emmanuel Grégoire, Anne Hidalgo's deputy in charge of urban planning. The structure of the private rental stock has a lot to do with this. In the 1920s and 1950s, 3 million Parisians were crammed into substandard apartments. Since then, housing has been renovated and transformed.
But it's the private sector that accounts for half of all people moving home, as well as three-quarters of all new arrivals from abroad (40% of whom are expatriates). Yet, with the surge in vacation rentals and second homes, it is playing less and less of a welcoming role. The city may be producing housing (32,000 units in six years), but online platforms are changing the primary use of thousands of those units from residential to vacation (16,000 over the same period).
The size of housing units also explains why families are leaving, an issue that "is nothing new," explained Martin Omhovere, an urban planner at the Institut Paris Région. With half of the housing stock made up of studios and one-bedroom apartments, "Paris is fundamentally designed to accommodate young people or households that become couples and then leave when children arrive." This is also true in other metropolitan areas such as Lyon.
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