Climatologists keep repeating that heat waves are set to increase worldwide. With temperatures set to rise by around 2°C by 2050 – corresponding to the average scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – Madrid's climate will resemble that of Marrakech today in 30 years' time, while London's temperatures will be close to those currently experienced in the Spanish capital.
As the effects of global warming become increasingly apparent, the rush to cool air has already begun. Around 135 million air conditioners are sold worldwide every year, a threefold increase in 30 years. The rate of equipped households is expected to reach 37% in 2022, compared with 20% in 2000. The number of air conditioners installed will reach 1.5 billion by 2021. This figure is set to triple by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
However, trends have considerably varied from one continent to another. The number of African households equipped with air conditioning has risen only slightly over the last 20 years, from 4% to 6% today. Driven by China, Asia, on the other hand, has seen its equipment rate soar from 19% to 47% over the same period. This race has doubled in twenty years the demand for electricity linked to air conditioning, which reached 2,000 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2021, between 8% and 10% of the electricity consumed worldwide. This is equivalent to 2.5 times the annual electricity consumption of the African continent.
By 2050, the European Environment Agency (EEA) predicts that the proportion of households equipped with air conditioning in the European Union will double (today, the number stands at 20%). France is no exception to this trend: its equipment rate could even reach 55%. The most spectacular growth is expected in Asia, where half of all air conditioners will be installed by 2050. Electricity consumption linked to air conditioning could then rise to between 3,400 and 5,200 TWh, depending on the level of improvement in air conditioner energy efficiency and other factors such as building performance, according to the IEA.
This surge meets a need, as heat waves can pose serious health risks and heat-related deaths have risen steadily since the 2000s. In the over-65 age group, 345,000 people died worldwide in 2019 due to heat waves, a figure that has risen by 80.6% in 20 years. In Europe, as a result of temperatures recorded in 2022, more than 62,000 people died, according to a study published in July in the journal Nature. Over a longer period in France, Santé Publique France (the French national public health agency) attributed 32,658 deaths to heat waves between 2014 and 2022, nearly a third of whom were under age 75.
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