On May 1, 2003, on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, George W. Bush emphatically announced the victory of the American army in Iraq in Operation "Iraqi Freedom." Shortly afterward, the country plunged into an endless tragedy from which it still hasn't really recovered.
Twenty years later on October 19, 2023, Joe Biden, aware of the Israeli prime minister's state of mind in the aftermath of the odious October 7 massacres perpetrated by Hamas and thinking of that Iraqi disaster, issued this warning to him at a press conference in Tel Aviv: "Don't make the same mistakes we did."
As if carried away by the vertigo of power conferred by his omnipotence over a powerful army, Netanyahu did not hear his words. Therefore, we must take him very seriously when he repeats that he is waging an all-out war for an all-out victory and don't be fooled otherwise by his stated objectives.
At least until November 5
When he says he wants to eradicate Hamas, he actually wants to settle the Palestinian question in all its dimensions, including UNRWA [United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, which the Israeli executive accuses of complicity with Hamas].
When he claims to be putting an end to Hezbollah to allow 80,000 Israelis to return home in the North, he actually wants to impose undivided domination over Lebanon to control – one way or another – Israel's territory from the border to the Litani River.
To achieve his goals, he conceives of only one means, the use of limitless force, with absolute contempt not only for UN Security Council resolutions but also for international humanitarian law. In this logic, no room is left for diplomacy even to try and get the hostages released, which he has never made a priority. Netanyahu has refused the ceasefire in Gaza just as he has just rejected out of hand the Franco-American proposal for a truce in Lebanon.
He's able to do this because he knows that his Western backers won't let him down. Wherever he goes and whatever he does. The US will do nothing to counter him at least until November 5, the date of the presidential election from which, he no doubt hopes, Donald Trump may emerge victorious. Until then, the Biden administration cannot afford the slightest wavering in its support for Tel Aviv, as this would risk being punished by the voters.
A disunited Europe
Netanyahu also knows that he has nothing to fear from a disunited Europe; France is determined to intervene in Lebanon, while Germany continues to supply this country with a significant proportion of the weapons it needs. Finally, he knows that, for a variety of reasons, Iran will not intervene to support Hezbollah, any more than it did in the aftermath of the assassination of [Hamas leader] Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. And if this should happen, despite everything, plans for a counter-attack are ready: "I have a message," he said during his UN speech on September 27, "for the tyrants of Tehran: if you hit us, we will hit you"
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