In the Middle East or indeed elsewhere, is there any group or person capable of halting the race toward a confrontation of incalculable consequences that threatens to erupt between Israel and Iran, backed by its allies in the "axis of resistance"? This is doubtful, as the prospect of large-scale Iranian strikes against Israel seems to have entered a countdown.

Since the July 30 assassination in Beirut of a senior military official of Lebanon-based Hezbollah (a Tehran ally), Fouad Shukur, followed a few hours later by that of the head of the Palestinian Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in the Iranian capital, Iran and Hezbollah, backed by their allies – the Houthis in Yemen, pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq – announced that they were working on a major retaliation against Israel, likely to result in unprecedented levels of destruction and retaliation from the Israeli state.

The US has announced that it is stepping up its military presence in the region, both to defend Israel and threaten Iran, and to maintain its ability to evacuate its citizens.

In a last-ditch diplomatic effort, Jordan dispatched its foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, to Tehran on Sunday, August 4, to deliver a message of restraint from King Abdullah II to the new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. His visit, the first by a senior Jordanian official to Iran since 2015, reflects the concern of Arab countries in the region about escalation. Iran insists on its desire for rapprochement with these countries, but the response Tehran is preparing may force some of them once again to break out of the neutrality they have sought to maintain since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023.

Since the end of the three-day national mourning period declared by Iran in tribute to Haniyeh, killed in Tehran in an unclaimed operation attributed to Israel, the Islamic Republic has stepped up its threats. On Saturday, Iran's representative to the United Nations said it expected Hezbollah to strike deep into Israeli territory and "not limit itself to military targets." This means that cities and infrastructure could be targeted. As for the leader of the Lebanese Party of God, Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, he spoke of an "inevitable response." On Saturday, the ultraconservative Iranian daily Kayhan mentioned the possibility of targeting Tel Aviv, the port of Haifa or strategic sites, all accompanied by "special operations."

Beyond psychological warfare, the intentions to strike hard are taken seriously by many security and diplomatic sources. "Iran seems determined to strike back despite the high probability that this will lead to a major war," said Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik research institute in Berlin. "In April [during the strikes against Israel], Iran's aim was to send a warning. Today, the aim is deterrence," continued the researcher, who believed, as do other sources specializing in this issue, that Tehran this time may not give a "discreet" warning prior to retaliation.

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