The unconventional attacks in Lebanon on September 17 and 18 have left Hezbollah humiliated, disorganized and beleaguered. The attacks, attributed to Israel – who hasn't denied them – involved the explosions of basic communication devices like pagers and walkie-talkies. The Lebanese Shiite militia used these devices to protect themselves from Israeli network surveillance and strikes. The blasts killed around 30 people and injured thousands, overwhelming Lebanon's health system.
These assassination attempts are clearly part of Israel's efforts to restore its deterrent capability, following its humiliating intelligence failure when the electronically-armored security fence around Gaza was breached on October 7, 2023. This fiasco paved the way for the worst massacre of civilians since the creation of Israel and the capture of 250 hostages, half of whom are still being held by Palestinian militiamen.
However, these attacks raise a number of questions. The first is one of principle. The bombings in Gaza, which killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians, were justified by the mere presence of Hamas militiamen, even in areas designated as safe by Israel. This has already raised this question. What has happened in Lebanon is accelerating the radical reevaluation of the rules of warfare, especially for democracies, which are expected to uphold certain standards during conflict.
Uncontrollable escalation
The distinction between civilian and military is at the heart of the issue. Those in charge of the operation had no guarantee that the explosions they were about to set off would actually reach the intended owners of the booby-trapped device, nor that innocent bystanders nearby wouldn't be harmed. Doesn't this approach resemble the very terrorism we claim to be fighting?
The second concerns the tactical choices made by the Israeli prime minister, who in the preceding days appeared to be orchestrating the ousting of his defense minister. The latter is an outspoken supporter of a ceasefire in Gaza, which could facilitate the release of the remaining Israeli hostages. However, the far right, whose support is crucial to Israel's ruling coalition, is fiercely opposed to a ceasefire.
By rejecting the ceasefire in Gaza that the US is unsuccessfully pushing for, which could also ease tensions with Hezbollah, Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be seeking to expand the conflict regionally by any means possible. Confident in his army's superiority, he also knows he can count on Washington's unstinting military support.
Despite suffering from a growing number of targeted assassinations against its leaders by Israel, Hezbollah remains a leading non-state military power. Iran continues to support them despite Israeli provocations like the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran this summer. So far, Hezbollah's actions have been measured, with the exception of the July strike that killed 12 Druze children and teenagers in Majdal Shams, on the Syrian Golan Heights, which was unilaterally annexed by Israel. To avoid an uncontrollable escalation, every effort must be made to spare the Middle East from yet another war.