On Tuesday, July 16, as Emmanuel Macron accepted the resignation of the Attal government and entrusted it with managing day-to-day affairs, the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire coalition displayed its divisions, at the risk of obliterating any chance of getting back into the game. Driven by the Socialists, Greens and Communists, the candidacy of Laurence Tubiana, a key architect of the Paris Agreement at COP21, for the post of prime minister came up against the refusal of the radical left La France Insoumise (LFI) to endorse her.
Discussions have not broken down, but 10 days of fruitless debate between party leaders who promised to agree quickly on the name of a prime minister but failed to do so highlight a structural weakness: United and effective in the fight against the far right, the left loses all cohesion once it is on the doorstep of power.
Although it came out on top in the second round of parliamentary elections on July 7, without having a majority to govern on its own, its leaders missed their chance to impose a balance of power on President Macron, weakened by the dissolution. By playing on the surprise effect, they could both claim the prime minister's office and force a parliamentary reading of the Constitution by seeking to forge alliances. But they had to act fast, united and determined, which they were unable to do.
Rebalancing
The spectacle of negotiations conducted behind closed doors, with no transparency whatsoever, and with names thrown out to be immediately disqualified, is akin to scuttling. It sends the left back to its strategic and policy weaknesses. Behind the noble name of Front Populaire, the war between the lefts continues to rage. It is crystallizing in a merciless confrontation between LFI and the Socialists, at a time when the left is beginning to rebalance. LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is seeking to retain the ascendancy on the left that he exercised through the NUPES alliance that preceded the current coalition since the 2022 legislative elections. A proponent of radicalism who favors the presidential elections, he only wants to govern under the conditions set by LFI, which amounts to excluding himself from the game.
The Socialists, who have almost doubled their number of seats in the Assemblée, are seeking to free themselves from his yoke. They are attached to a culture of governing. They know that the tense budgetary context means that priorities have to be ranked and that the tripartite system means that they have to look for allies beyond their own camp. But they don't want to run the risk of dissociating themselves from the rest of the left and fear being seen as "traitors." This is why the union is not officially broken but risks becoming useless. The longer they procrastinate, the more the leaders of the Nouveau Front Populaire are condemning themselves to having only a counter-weight influence in the months ahead.
Given the complexity of the political situation, this choice amounts to a preference for avoidance over risk-taking. This highly political calculation may have its advantages if governmental instability prevails over the next few months. However, it is likely to be severely judged by left-wing voters who voted for change and now see that, in reality, everything is being done to keep things as they are.