On Sunday, November 12, India turned on the lights. Or rather, millions of lights. Thus began Diwali, the festival celebrating the victory of light over darkness. It's Indian Christmas, celebrated over five days when people give each other gifts and wish each other all the best for the coming New Year. The first gift, of interest only to economists and politicians, will be the publication of October's inflation rate.
This should confirm the decline in price rises, which had reached 7% in July before receding in the following months and should, according to analysts, hover around 4.8%, close to the 4% target the central bank had set itself. It was therefore right not to raise rates, believing that the rise was temporary, due to the monsoon disasters.
The new Indian era also opens with a piece of news that is exciting to the whole subcontinent: The country has qualified for the semi-finals of the World Cricket Championship, which will take place in India. India will take on New Zealand, while Australia will face South Africa. The country's former ruler, England, has thus bitten the dust, which is not to the displeasure of the Indian in the street.
But this Indian New Year is also one of great economic hope. Its economic growth is the strongest of any major country. Its gross domestic product has risen from $2,000 billion (€1,871 billion) in 2014 to $3,750 billion in 2023. As the world's fifth-largest economy, it has not only overtaken the United Kingdom in cricket. Its demographics and youthful population, coupled with strong investment in infrastructure and digital technology, have created the conditions for exceptional momentum. Added to this are reforms in taxation, banking and the opening up of markets. Its global successes in digital services and pharmaceuticals could well be enriched by the development of an alternative industrial base for a China neglected by the West.
All this contrasts strangely with the latest Chinese figures, which have marked a dramatic slowdown in consumption and exports. Deflation is threatening in a country aging at great speed. But, as in cricket, the match will be very long and unpredictable. The Indian team will have to fight its old demons: endemic corruption, a failing education system, an archaic social structure and an increasingly authoritarian political regime. The light has not yet conquered the darkness.