Let us be clear from the start: The risk is high. There is a very real risk that the attention Donald Trump is giving to the Middle East will fade, from the moment the indirect negotiations organized in Egypt between the Israelis and representatives of Hamas, whom the Israelis tried to assassinate in Qatar on September 9, yield results. The kind of visible, concrete results that the president of the United States can loudly praise about on his social media platform. Or, perhaps, after the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded.
The most anticipated results are well-known: the end of the war and the hostages' release. The sooner, the better, given the ongoing destruction in the Gaza Strip, where Israeli civilians, who were captured on October 7, 2023, are also still being held prisoner. Putting an end to the suffering is an absolute priority. Yet to believe that merely achieving this would be enough is a fantasy.
This is where the question of Hamas' demilitarization comes in. The idea has now become the subject of a rare international consensus, even among countries that have long been sympathetic to the group, just as there is now consensus on the principle of excluding Hamas from Gaza's future administration. Israeli military hegemony has been bolstered by artificial intelligence and has freed itself from the laws of war, as illustrated by its "Dahiya doctrine" of disproportionate and indiscriminate destruction. In such an era, what comparative advantage does the type of armed struggle practiced by Hamas still offer, especially when it so flagrantly violates international humanitarian law?
Strategic dead end
Despite the horror into which its barbaric October 7 attack thrust the Palestinians in Gaza, Hamas has pretended not to have read points seven and 13 of Trump's plan, which was made public on September 29. These points, which call for the movement's disarmament, were not mentioned in its favorable response to the US president. This denial and avoidance highlight the scale of the challenges that lie ahead.
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