In the wake of the hottest July on record, the world's eyes are firmly fixed on the rising temperature curve. But there is another essential marker of climate change that is also at the heart of all concerns: water.

Its natural cycle is changing, giving rise to torrential rains and intense droughts. As a resource, it is becoming increasingly scarce, while the human population and most of nature's living organisms need it all the more as heat waves become more severe. As a result, it is becoming clear that "the world is facing an unprecedented water crisis, exacerbated by climate change," as stated by the World Resources Institute (WRI).

This US-based international research organization, whose expertise is recognized in the environmental field, published an atlas on Wednesday, August 16 that unambiguously sheds light on current and future shortages, in partnership with the Aqueduct program – itself supported by an alliance of research centers, universities, governments and businesses.

Around four billion people – almost half of the Earth's population – already face "high" water stress for at least one month a year. According to the analysis by WRI and Aqueduct, which examined data series from 1979 to 2019, this number could rise to almost 60% as early as 2050. "High" stress means that at least 60% of available water resources are consumed, leading to local competition between different water users. Shortages are set to intensify without a serious proactive policy response.

Twenty-five countries are already under "extremely high" stress, defined as a situation where the imbalance between water consumption and reserves is at least 80%. Bahrain, Cyprus, Kuwait, Lebanon and Oman are the most vulnerable, with Chile, Greece and Tunisia also appearing high on the list. In South Asia, 74% of the population is exposed to extremely high water stress. In the Middle East and North Africa, 83% of the population is affected. Modeling indicates that 100% of people in those regions could be affected by 2050.

It is expected that a billion more people will be living in extremely water-stressed conditions by the middle of this century. This however references an optimistic scenario where we manage to limit the rise in average temperature to between 1.3°C and 2.4°C. "Even so, our analysis draws long-term trends and shows averages," points out Samantha Kuzma, data manager and geolocation expert for the Aqueduct program and WRI. "It does not account for peaks, which can trigger even worse experiences at the local level."

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