Whoever the next finance and economy minister may be, his or her first task will be to complete a budget in record time, before the constitutional deadline on October 1. And then to put it to the vote, in an Assemblée Nationale with no majority.
The next finance minister will not start from scratch. On their desk, they will find a draft budget for 2025 drawn up by outgoing ministers Bruno Le Maire and Thomas Cazenave, as well as the letters sent to ministries on August 20, setting spending ceilings. But will they have to remain faithful to this text, which essentially maintains the initial budget for 2024, without any increases or decreases, and perpetuates the emergency savings decided in the first half of the year? Or, on the contrary, make a mark in one direction or another?
There is nothing less neutral than a budget. It is here, in each of its countless lines, that most political choices are made a reality. Yet the plans of the various parties vying for the key role in the new Assemblée Nationale have little in common.
For the left-wing coalition, the Nouveau Front Populaire, which emerged on top in the elections but without an outright majority, the most important task is to "respond to the social emergency, the climate challenge and the need to repair public services," and to create "greater tax justice." This involves major public spending, accompanied by new taxes. The NFP's policy platform calls for a 10% rise in the index point for civil servants, a corresponding increase in housing subsidies, environmental investment and more. The coalition wants to repeal last year's pension reform which raised the retirement, as does the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) – a move that would increase expenses. In total, the NFP has estimated the cost of its program at €25 billion in 2024, rising to €100 billion in 2025.
The right, on the other hand, wants to cut taxes and "put the books in order." In their "emergency legislative pact," the parliamentary leaders of the Les Républicains (LR) party propose €25 billion in savings. Macron's coalition, meanwhile, is above all intent on preserving its business-friendly supply-side economics, with the idea of removing the brakes on private initiatives to support growth. They also want to bring the budget deficit down to 3% of gross domestic product by 2027, from 5.5% in 2023, as the government has pledged.
Whether to increase or cut spending, raise taxes or lower them, meet European targets or not, maintain continuity or mark a break with the past, at this stage, all decisions are yet to be made. And then there's the matter of finding a majority in the Assemblée Nationale. Or, at least, one that is not willing to bring down the government.
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